The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, June 19, in Observance of Juneteenth

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn closed the midweek session notably higher, reversing Tuesday’s losses as strength in the wheat market provided support throughout the trading day.  July corn ended the day 7-1/2 cents higher at 4.21-1/4 while September ended 7-1/4 cents higher at 4.29-3/4.
• Ethanol production slipped to 324 million gallons last week while down less than 1% from the YA. Production was below expectations. There was 108 mill bushels of corn used in the production process or 15.45 million bushels per day, below the 15.75 needed to reach the revised USDA forecast of 5.575 billion bushels
• Overnight, Taiwan reportedly purchased 65,000 metric tons of corn from Brazil. U.S. offers in the tender were priced at a $13 to $15 per metric ton premium to corn sourced from Argentina and Brazil, highlighting ongoing competitiveness challenges for U.S. exports.
• The Midwest weather outlook remains generally bearish, with additional rainfall expected across the Corn Belt and no immediate threat of extreme heat. USDA rated 68% of the corn crop in the top 18 corn-producing states as good to excellent, up 1% from last week but below last year’s 72%. Iowa slipped to 79% good to excellent from 84%, while dryness continues to be a concern in Nebraska, where ratings fell to 55%.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher but lagged behind the gains of corn and wheat, which was the leader today. July soybeans gained 2 cents to 1132 while November gained 2-3/4 cents to 1149-1/4. July soybean meal was unchanged at $304.80 and July soybean oil lost 1.38 cents to 1.38 cents despite a slight gain in crude oil.
• The disconnect between higher soybean futures and weaker product markets suggests some traders may be repositioning ahead of the upcoming three-day weekend. Managed money is estimated to still hold a net-long soybean position of roughly 40,000 contracts. If funds continue reducing exposure and shift to a net-short position, soybean futures could face renewed pressure and potentially challenge the $11.00 level.
• Part of the recent rebound has been fueled by market chatter that China’s Sinograin has been exploring purchases of U.S. soybeans for October through March shipment. While no official sales have been announced, traders remain highly sensitive to any signs of renewed Chinese demand. Brazilian soybeans remain competitively priced in the global market, though the price advantage has narrowed compared to earlier in the year.
• Part of the recent rebound has been fueled by market chatter that China’s Sinograin has been exploring purchases of U.S. soybeans for October through March shipment. While no official sales have been announced, traders remain highly sensitive to any signs of renewed Chinese demand. Brazilian soybeans remain competitively priced in the global market, though the price advantage has narrowed compared to earlier in the year. Estimates for tomorrow’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 100k and 300k tons for 25/26 and between 250k and 500k tons for 26/27. This would compare to 211.3k and 141.5k tons respectively from last week.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures posted sharp gains Thursday, leading the grain complex higher. Traders cited rumors of potential Chinese interest in U.S. wheat, ongoing dryness concerns in parts of western Europe, large international purchases, and growing concerns about El Niño’s impact on Southern Hemisphere production. In the July contract, Chicago gained 16-3/4 cents to 612-3/4, Kansas City rallied 18-3/4 cents to 652-1/2, and MIAX climbed 13-1/4 cents to 625-1/2.
• Algeria’s state grain agency, OAIC, is believed to have purchased between 600,000 and 780,000 mt of milling wheat in their tender. The price paid is said to be around $264-$265/mt on a CNF basis. The wheat is expected to be sourced largely from the Black Sea region.
• A Russian port city along the Black Sea, Novorossiysk, reportedly suffered heavy drone attacks overnight. This may be putting a little bit of war premium back into the marketplace due to this being a major export terminal location.
• According to their economy minister, Ukraine has completed their spring grain sowing, totaling 5.9 million hectares. This is about in line with last year’s plantings, despite the ongoing war and higher fuel costs. While corn is the primary spring crop, Ukraine also plants a small percentage of spring wheat.
• Official government data from India showed that their domestic wheat stocks reached the highest level in five years. Reportedly, as of June 1, stocks totaled 53.41 mmt. For reference, their government was only targeting 27.6 mmt. This should allow the government to release supplies into the market as needed to curb high prices. For the 25/26 season, India’s wheat production was a record high 120.66 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures continued lower, with the July contract settling 17 cents lower at $16.18 as weakness in the spot dairy markets provided little support.
• Spot cheese fell 0.625 cents to close at $1.43875/lb, while spot whey declined 1 cent to settle at $0.6775/lb.
• Class IV futures remained under pressure from continued weakness in the powder market, with the July contract closing 29 cents lower at $17.70.
• Spot butter fell 4.50 cents to close at $1.5500/lb, while spot powder declined 3.50 cents to settle at $1.6350/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill