CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures posted losses Friday alongside soybeans and wheat, as traders adopted a risk-off approach. Despite a heat wave expected this weekend, the market remains pressured by forecasts calling for above-normal precipitation across the Midwest, limiting upside momentum.
• USDA reported corn export sales of 35.6 mb for 2024/25 and 6.1 mb for 2025/26. Shipments last week totaled 68.7 mb, well above the 44.5 mb weekly pace needed to meet the USDA’s 2.650 bb target. Total 2024/25 commitments now stand at 2.631 bb, up 26% from a year ago.
• Argentina’s corn harvest advanced 3% to 50% complete, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. While yields are reportedly better than expected, the group maintained its production estimate at 49 MMT — slightly below the USDA’s 50 MMT and last year’s 51.6 MMT.
• The latest EIA report showed ethanol production down 1% on the week to 326 million gallons — still exceeding the pace needed to meet USDA’s 5.5 bb corn use forecast. Ethanol stocks rose 1.6% from the previous week.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower, reversing from highs earlier in the day. The move was a bearish reversal having taken out Wednesday’s high but closing below its low. Volume was likely lighter than normal following the holiday and going into the weekend. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today as well.
• Export sales came in better than expected, with 19.8 mb booked for 2024/25 and 2.8 mb for 2025/26. Top buyers included Germany, Mexico, and unknown destinations. Shipments totaled 14.9 mb, above the 13.2 mb weekly pace needed to reach USDA’s 1.850 bb target.
• Chinese soybean imports from Brazil surged 37.5% year over year in May, totaling 12.11 MMT versus 8.81 MMT last year. Imports from the U.S. were just 1.63 MMT.
• For the week, July soybeans lost 1-3/4 cents closing at $10.68 while November soybeans gained 6 cents to $10.60-3/4. July soybean meal lost $7.80 to $284.10 while July bean oil gained a whopping 3.86 cents to 54.47 cents reaching the highest level since September 2023.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower Friday, following the broader grain complex. After Thursday’s sharp rally, profit-taking was likely a factor, alongside a mostly non-threatening U.S. weather outlook that pressured corn and soybean futures, limiting wheat’s upside.
• USDA reported wheat export sales of 15.7 mb for 2025/26. Shipments reached 13.4 mb, below the 15.6 mb weekly pace needed to hit USDA’s 825 mb export goal. Total sales commitments for 2025/26 stand at 233 mb, up 17% from last year.
• Weather conditions in South America could provide underlying support. Heavy rains in southern Brazil are expected to delay winter wheat planting, while persistent dryness in Argentina may hinder crop establishment.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentine wheat planting at 60% complete, up 22% from the previous week. They maintained their production estimate at 20 MMT, which would be an 8% increase year-over-year if realized.
• The Russian agriculture ministry is anticipating a 2025 wheat crop totaling 90 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of just 83 mmt. However, both the ag ministry and the USDA are anticipating Russian wheat exports near 45 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• July Class III futures fell for the fourth straight week, closing at $17.51 today after losing 17 cents since Wednesday’s settlement.
• Spot cheese fell 17.50 cents this week, its worst-performing week since last fall with a finish at $1.66125/lb. Spot whey was up 1.75 cents on the week.
• Class IV futures were also weaker today with the second half of 2025 seeing losses of 8 to 23 cents.
• Spot butter fell 7 cents this week to move to $2.50/lb. Spot powder fell less than a penny on the week to settle at $1.26/lb.
• US Milk Production for May was up 1.6% YoY. Cow numbers were up 5,000 head from April and were up 114,000 head YoY. Production per cow totaled 2,110 lbs for May, up 7 lbs from last year.

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Author

Brandon Doherty