TFM Daily Market Summary 06-26-2024


  • Corn futures traded lower for the seventh time in the past eight sessions as July and December corn futures pushed to new lows for the recent move. July corn closed under the most recent February low as the chart continues to show technical damage.
  • Bearish forces remain in the corn market and grain markets in general. Weather forecasts remain friendly for crop development, potential bearish USDA planted acres and grain stock report, overall demand concerns, and pricing of basis contracts with First Notice Day in July coming this week have helped push the bearish sentiment and price action.
  • The USDA will release the Quarterly grain stocks and Planted Acres report on Friday, June 28. Expectations are for corn stocks to be nearly 770 mb over last year and planted acres to increase to 90.35 million acres.  The heavy supply picture and possible acre increase are being priced in the market.
  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Last week’s export sales were disappointing at 511,000 mt. The market will look for some recovery in those sales at these lower price levels.
  • Weekly daily ethanol production slipped last week to an average of 1.043 million barrels/day, down 1.3% from last week. The amount of corn used for the week is estimated at 103.53 million bushels, which was below the pace needed to reach USDA targets for the marketing year.


  • Soybeans ended the day lower after mixed trade throughout the day which saw prices higher around midday before fading into the close with the rest of the grain complex. Pressure has been coming from a wet 14-day forecast for the central and eastern Corn Belt, and trade has seemingly ignored the potential damage done in the northwest due to flooding. Soybean meal closed lower while soybean oil was higher.
  • On Friday, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres reports. Analysts are estimating that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million which would be slightly higher than the planting intentions numbers of 86.510 million reported in March. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.
  • US export demand has been sluggish with the bulk of business going to Brazil and Argentina as they remain more competitive. China has purchased some old crop soybeans but has been hesitant to purchase any new crop soybeans so far. Meanwhile, export group ANEC has reported that Brazilian soybean exports for June would reach 14.5 mmt,
  • It’s estimated that funds hold a net short position of approximately 200,000 contracts between soybeans and soybean oil and are long approximately 97,000 contracts of soybean meal as of Wednesday. Yesterday, it was estimated that the funds sold an additional 10,000 contracts of soybeans.


  • Early gains in the wheat market gave way to late session weakness that resulted in a mixed close. While Kansas City futures were higher across the board, Chicago and Minneapolis contracts finished on both sides of unchanged. Part of the weakness may be a result of the US Dollar Index, which rallied back above the 106 level for the first time since May 1. Harvest pressure remains a factor, running roughly double the average pace as of Monday’s crop progress report.
  • Lower wheat prices may have sparked some global buying interest. Egypt bought 470,000 mt in their tender at roughly $22 per mt under their previous purchase. Russia and Romania received most of the business at 180,000 mt each, with the rest fulfilled by Ukraine and Bulgaria.
  • SovEcon is reported to have reduced their estimate of Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat production by 1.2 mmt to 20.4 mmt. For reference, this is still higher than the USDA figure of 19.5 mmt. Additionally, SovEcon has said that Ukraine’s 24/25 wheat exports may drop 25% year over year to 13.6 mmt. In related news, warm and dry weather is expected to return to southwest Russia and eastern Ukraine by the end of the week.
  • Canada’s 24/25 planted wheat area is expected to come in at 27.2 million acres according to a Bloomberg survey, a bump up from the 27.0 million acre estimate in March. Stats Canda will release the official data tomorrow, June 27, at 8:30 AM Eastern. For reference 2023 acreage was 27.0 million.


  • Class III milk’s second month July contract gained 5 cents today to settle at $19.52 while the August contract was up 41 cents to settle at $20.50.
  • Spot cheese fell another 0.125 cents to settle at $1.89/lb with blocks up 0.75 cents to settle at $1.88/lb and barrels down 1 cent to settle at $1.90/lb.
  • Spot butter made up any losses from yesterday and closed 5.75 cents higher to settle at $3.09/lb.
  • The Class IV milk second month contract closed up 12 cents to settle at $21.18 while August closed 38 cents higher to settle at $21.43.
  • Spot powder finished down 0.25 cents to close at $1.185/lb while whey remained unchanged at $0.4850/lb.

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Amanda Brill

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