CORN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Despite a strong move higher in the wheat market, corn futures saw further selling pressure as the influence of First Notice Day and the pricing of basis contracts limited the corn market.
- Friday is First Notice Day for July corn. With that deadline, long futures positions must be exited or risk delivery. While in this window, producers with basis contracts for corn need to choose to price the product or roll to a different month.
- Weekly corn exports sales were within expectations in the USDA’s weekly export sales report. Last week, US exporters sold 21.3 mb (542,000 mt) of old crop corn, and 5.5 mb (139,300 mt) of new crop, all within market expectations. Total corn sales commitments now total 2.101 bb for 23/24, up 38% from last year.
- The USDA will release the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acres report on Friday, June 28. Expectations are for corn stocks to be 4.873 billion bushels, up nearly 770 mb over last year, and planted acres to increase nearly 300,000 acres to 90.35 million acres. The heavy supply picture and possible increase in acres are pressuring the market.
SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:
- Soybeans ended the day lower for a third consecutive day as selling pressure continues on the prospect of good weather for the central Corn Belt and the anticipation of a large crop. Tomorrow is also First Notice Day for July futures which may have had a negative impact on futures. Both soybean meal and oil were mixed with the front months higher and deferred contracts lower.
- Today’s export sales report showed an increase of soybean export sales by 10.4 mb in 23/24 and 3.7 mb for 24/25. This was on the lower end of trade expectations. Last week’s export shipments of 14.4 mb were above the 13.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s expectations. Primary destinations were to Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands.
- Tomorrow, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acres reports. Analysts estimate that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million, which would be slightly higher than the planting intentions numbers of 86.510 million reported in March. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.
- While export demand has been sluggish overall, this morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. If this was China making the purchase, it would be their first purchase of new crop US soybeans.
WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- Wheat was finally able to stop the bleeding, ending with double-digit gains across all three classes. Higher Matif wheat futures lent support, as did the vastly oversold conditions of the market from a technical perspective. The US Dollar also took a bit of a breather, falling back below 106 and easing some of the pressure on wheat.
- The USDA reported an increase of 24.5 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments last week at 11.9 mb fell below the 15.5 mb pace needed per week to reach the export goal of 800 mb. Sales commitments, now at 224 mb for 24/25, are 45% higher than a year ago.
- Pre-report estimates for tomorrow’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report offer a slight bearish bias. Stocks as of June 1 are anticipated to come in at 682 mb, well above last year’s 570 mb figure. Additionally, all wheat acreage at 47.58 million is expected to see a slight bump from the March estimate of 47.50 million. For reference, this is still below last year’s 49.58 million acres planted.
- This morning’s data from Stats Canada was supportive and may have helped contribute to the rally. All wheat planted acreage in 2024 was down 1.1% to 26.6 million acres. This falls below the average pre-report estimate of 27.2 million, and the March estimate of 27.0 million. Spring wheat acreage in particular was down 2.8% to 18.9 million acres.
- According to the USDA as of June 25, about 21% of US winter wheat areas are experiencing drought conditions, up from only 17% the week prior. Additionally, spring wheat also saw a slight increase in drought area, from 3% to 5% for the same time period.
DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:
- Class III action was two-sided today with the front two months slightly higher but August and September futures down 26 and 25 cents, respectively.
- The block/barrel average was up a half-cent to $1.8950/lb, entering Friday up 1.25 cents on the week. Whey was unchanged, 1.50 cents to the good for the week so far.
- Action in the Class IV futures was mostly unchanged with small gains for the July, September, and October futures.
- The spot trade was mixed with spot butter 1.75 cents higher while spot powder fell a half-cent. Powder has once again run into resistance near $1.20/lb.
- Tomorrow, the USDA will release its estimates for Planted Acreage and June 1st Quarterly Stocks.
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