CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Sellers stayed in control in the corn market as prices finished with strong double-digit losses, dropping another 4% again on Wednesday. Since peaking at $6.29-3/4 on June 16, December corn has lost 93 cents into today’s close.
• Technical selling and long liquidation gripped the corn market as prices pushed through support levels. Selling pressure was only fueled by the weather forecast staying on the wetter side for the next couple weeks, which could provide some severely needed moisture in key growing areas.
• The USDA announced an export sale of corn to Mexico this morning. Mexico bought 170,706 MT of corn. Of that total, 21,340 MT was old crop, and 149,366 MT was new crop. This was the first published export corn sale since April 14.
• The market may turn choppy as traders look to this Friday’s USDA Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report. Expectations are for corn acres to be at 91.8 million acres, down slightly from the March planting estimates. Grain stocks for the quarter are expected to be near 4.25 billion bushels, down 2.3% from last year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed sharply lower again, along with both soybean meal and oil, as weather forecasts continue to predict needed rains over the next 5 days in the Corn Belt. Illinois and Indiana are slated to receive the most rain followed by Iowa.
• Next week’s Crop Progress report will be interesting in that we will see how much help the crop received from this week’s rain. Monday’s report showed good to excellent ratings at just 51% and Illinois’ ratings at just 25%.
• Brazil’s soybean crop has been estimated higher yet again, now at 156 mmt. They increased their soy exports as well to a record large 97.3 mmt, up 1.3 mmt from their last estimate.
• On Friday, the Planted Acreage report will be released, and the Dow Jones survey expects the USDA to say that 97.7 million acres of soybeans were planted in 2023 and 808 mb of soybeans were on hand as of June 1.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Neither the higher US Dollar today, nor lower Matif wheat futures offered any support to the US wheat complex. Funds are likely adding short positions due to the shift in weather towards a wetter forecast. Additionally, lower row crop futures do not help the wheat price situation.
• Major weather models are all putting more rain in the forecast for the driest parts of the Midwest. This may slow winter wheat harvest, which is already behind the normal pace. But it may also bring some moisture to northern spring wheat areas, improving crop conditions there. Spring wheat is currently rated 50% good to excellent.
• Within the past week, two cargoes of wheat have left Ukraine along with 5 cargoes of corn, destined for Europe and China. While there have been reports of Russia blocking shipments in the Black Sea, some grain still appears to be flowing. This is also despite the recent developments in Russia and the Wagner group’s attempted coup.
• The Ukraine Grain Traders Union is estimating Ukraine’s wheat crop at 24.4 mmt, which is higher than other estimates ranging from 16-18 mmt. If the Black Sea corridor is renewed on July 18th (still an uncertainty at this point), increased exports out of that region could further pressure US markets.
• On Friday, traders will receive the quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports from the USDA. All wheat acreage is expected to be down slightly at 49.647 million acres, compared to 49.855 on the March report. The pre-report average stocks estimate is at 611 mb, vs 946 in March, and vs 698 at this time last year.
• December Chicago wheat broke through support at the 100-day moving average today but did hold support at 5.85, the 21-day moving average. Technically, momentum is down on daily stochastics and the RSI.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• August contracts took over as the running second month today, with the Class III contract down 13 cents at $15.04.
• Its Class IV counterpart closed at $17.59, 15 cents lower than Tuesday’s finish.
• Spot cheese closed green today, although it was for a whopping 0.6250 cent. Both blocks and barrels remain in the $1.30’s as the spread has narrowed.
• Spot powder was unchanged while butter closed 4 cents higher at $2.44/lb, continuing to be the one positive element within dairy currently.

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Author

John Heinberg