CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Bearish USDA reports for planted acres and grain stocks broke the corn market to new lows for the move. For the week, September corn lost 33 cents and December corn fell 32 ½. Today was the lowest close for December corn since July 2021.
• On the USDA Planted Acreage report, the USDA survey projected 91.475 million acres, up 1.6% from the March estimate and well above expectations at 90.350 million acres. The USDA stated that 3.36 million acres still needed planting at the time of data collection. Those missing acres will be determined in future reports (Aug/Sept) as planted acres, unharvested acres, or possible prevent plant acres.
• For Quarterly Grain Stocks, the USDA totaled 4.997 billion bushels of corn at the end of the second quarter. This was up 22% from June 1 last year, an increase of 890 mb. Regarding the stocks, 3.03 billion bushels remain in on-farm storage, up 37% from last year. The large on-farm storage could limit rally potential in the corn market as those bushels move.
• With the report in the rear view, the focus will shift back to the weather. Forecasts remain friendly for crop growth with temperatures staying above normal, but also precipitation, into early July. These conditions are likely to limit any potential corn market rallies in the near term.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day bear spread with losses in the front months but a higher close in November futures despite a bullish acreage report that saw expected planted acreage down from trade estimates, but a slightly negative stocks report. Soybeans traded higher at midday but following the reports, faded into the close. Soybean meal ended the day lower while soybean oil was slightly higher.
• Today’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans. The USDA estimated US soybean planted acres at 86.1 million which is below the March estimate of 86.51 million and compares to 83.60 million last year. The decrease in acres can be attributed to the increase in corn acres reported today.
• While the decrease in planted acreage was friendly, the Quarterly Stocks portion of the report was not. Soybeans stored in all positions as of June 1 totaled 970 million bushels which was above expectations and up 22% from the previous year. On-farm stocks totaled 466 million bushels which is up 44% from a year ago.
• Today was First Notice Day for July grains, so the August contract will be taking over as the new front month. For the week, August soybeans lost 13 ½ cents to 1133 ½, August soybean meal lost $2.70 to $346.00, and August soybean oil lost 0.13 cents to 44.07 cents. Overall, pressure has come from a relatively good weather forecast and expectations of a large soybean crop.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat mostly closed lower across all three US categories. The main feature today was the USDA’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports. While the stocks number was bearish, the acreage figure was somewhat positive. This suggests that wheat might have been following corn lower rather than reacting solely to its own report results. With winter wheat harvest likely well over 50% done at this point, wheat has the potential for a post-harvest rally in the not-too-distant future.
• The USDA pegged June 1 wheat stocks at 702 mb, which was above the average trade guess of 682 mb, and also exceeded the high end of pre-report estimates at 699 mb. For reference June 1 wheat stocks of 2023 were 570 mb, meaning today’s estimate was 23% higher than a year ago.
• All wheat planted acreage came in at 47.2 million acres, which was on the lower end of estimates, and compared to an average pre-report guess of 47.58 million. Today’s estimate was also below the March projection of 47.5 million and was a 5% drop from last year’s 49.58 million. Of today’s total, 33.8 million acres are expected to be winter wheat, with 11.3 million acres dedicated to spring wheat.
• Aside from today’s report, there was not much fresh news in the wheat market. However, one item worth noting is that India’s government has announced limited import quotas of ag goods, in an effort to reduce food inflation. While these measures do not specifically address wheat, there is still talk that India may be a net importer this year to rebuild reserves.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III action was weaker heading into the weekend. August futures fell 20 cents on Friday to close at $20.04. This makes for a total loss of 54 cents over the week for August Class III futures. Many of the other 2024 contracts were in the same boat.
• Spot cheese was unchanged on the day at $1.8950/lb. Spot whey ended the week gaining half a cent to $0.49/lb with 1 load traded.
• The Class IV market saw double-digit gains for all but two 2024 futures contracts. Butter continues to lead the charge for Class IV pricing despite limited trading volume for Class IV milk.
• Spot butter posted a strong finish to the week improving another 1.75 cents for a weekly gain of 3.50 cents. Butter now sits at $3.1250/lb and remains in an uptrend. Powder continues to slip with a weekly loss of 2.25 cents to last trade at $1.1825/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg