CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market saw some buying strength on Tuesday after the release of the USDA Planted Acres and Grain Stocks report. Gains were likely fueled by position squaring/short covering for the end of the month and quarter. September corn gained 6 ½ cents to 416 ¾, while December corn added 6 cents to 436.
• The USDA Planted Acreage Report stated that planted corn acreage was at 95.34 million acres. This total was slightly above market expectations and in line with the March estimate. Total corn acreage was down 3.5% from last year’s total.
• Quarterly Grain stocks estimated current corn supplies at 5.295 billion bushels, when is one of the largest totals going into the final quarter over the past 40 years. This total was below market expectation by 105 mb, which could reduce final old crop carryout slightly. Current US corn stocks are still 14% larger than last year.
• Of the 5.295 billion bushels of corn stocks reported, on-farm supplies totaled 2.96 billion bushels, up 16% from a year ago, while commercial inventories came in at 2.34 billion bushels, an increase of 12%. The sizeable stocks figure highlights the large supply of corn that still must be worked through the market ahead of harvest.
• With the USDA Report data now past the market, traders will shift focus back to weather forecast. July weather is the key weather window for yield development in the corn crop. Current weather models still reflect overall favorable weather for crop development.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher following volatile trade as a result of today’s USDA reports. Prices were sharply lower to start the day but rose following the report. August soybeans gained 5 cents to $11.24-1/4 while November gained 4-3/4 cents to $11.43-3/4. August bean meal gained $0.10 to $303.90, and bean oil lost 1.93 cents to 66.93 cents.
• While today’s Quarterly Stocks and Planted Acreage reports caused volatile price action, the final numbers were very close to analysts’ expectations. Funds likely oversold heading into the report. Soybean planted acres were seen at 85.36 million acres which was up from 84.7 ma in March but was perfectly in line with the trade guess. Quarterly stocks were seen at 1.061 billion bushels which compared to 1.008 bb in June 2025 and the pre-report estimate of 1.046 bb.
• Today was first notice day for July soybeans and products. There were 31 deliveries against July soybeans but a whopping 729 deliveries against soybean oil. This generally reflects extra supply, and this was paired with a sharp drop in prices today. The funds hold a large net long position. If they begin exiting, it could cause a significant drop.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report saw ratings fall for soybeans as of June 28. They fell by 1 point to 65% good to excellent, which compares to 66% a year ago at this time. 96% of the crop is emerged, 19% is blooming, and 4% is setting pods. All of this is outpacing the 5-year average.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite a generally negative start to the day, wheat closed higher across the board after a friendly quarterly stocks and acreage report from the USDA. In the September contract, Chicago rallied 9-1/2 cents to 589-1/4, Kansas City climbed 10-1/2 cents to 625-1/4, and MIAX gained 5-3/4 cents to 606-1/2.
• The USDA pegged wheat stocks as of June 1 at 920 mb versus expectations for 935 mb. This also compares with the March 1 stocks figure of 1.3 bb, and the June 1, 2025 figure of 855 mb.
• The USDA said all wheat planted acreage totaled 42.7 ma, which was below the trade expectation and March estimate of 43.8 ma – for reference, 2025 acres totaled 45.3 million. In the breakdown by class, winter wheat was projected at 31.5 ma versus 32.4 ma expected, and spring wheat came in at 9.4 ma, in line with expectations.
• Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat conditions held steady at 26% good to excellent. An estimated 48% of that crop is harvested, well above the 34% pace last year and the five-year average of 39%. Additionally, spring wheat was rated 59% good to excellent, up 5% from the week before; 32% of that crop is headed, falling 3% below last year and 2% below the average.
• According to Stats Canada, Canadian farmers planted 25.33 million acres of wheat. This was about 1 million below expectations and may have also contributed to today’s bullish move in US wheat futures.
• Argus has increased their estimate of Russian 26/27 wheat production by 0.7 mmt to 91.2 mmt. This is despite expectations for the lowest spring wheat production since the 19/20 season. Good yields in the Rostov region are expected to offset the lower spring wheat output.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A lack of follow through in the Class IV spot products took milk futures red on Tuesday.
• Spot powder was offered 6.75c lower to $1.63/lb on 16 loads traded. Powder futures finished limit down as the Class IV roller coaster continues.
• Spot butter fell 0.25c on a whopping 36 loads traded. This snaps a four-day streak of green for butter.
• The cheese market is still sluggish, having traded in the $ 1.40s for weeks and not able to attract enough buyers to push higher.
• The USDA will release a Dairy Products report on Thursday, updating the market on total US cheese and butter production from May.

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Author

John Heinberg