The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market fought off early session lows, supported by the strength in wheat and soybean markets. Corn futures finished the day mixed with light selling pressure in the front end of the market.
• The corn market is still processing the bearish Crop Acreage and Grain Stocks report from Friday. The large jump in supply will be a major limiting force over top in the weeks ahead.
• The USDA will release the next round of crop ratings on Monday afternoon. The corn crop is expected to slip to 68% Good/Excellent, down 1% from last week.
• The USDA’s weekly export inspections report was disappointing on Monday. Last week US exporters shipped 820,000 mt (33.4 mb) of corn, down from 1.1 mmt last week. The past couple weeks, corn export sales have shed some of their strength and export inspection were lighter this week. Total inspections in 23/24 are now at 1.672 bb, up 28% from last year.
• Weather forecasts will remain a major focus for the markets going into the key July weather time frame. While the forecast remains on the warm side, precipitation remains active into the middle of the month. Currently, weather is non-threatening overall to crop production.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher and were bull spread with the August contract which is the new front month up 12 ½ cents while the November contract closed only 7 cents higher. The spreading indicates the demand for cash soybeans but anticipation of a large crop coming in November. Soybean meal was mixed with the front months higher and deferred months lower, and soybean oil was higher.
• Friday’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans. The USDA estimated US soybean planted acres at 86.1 million which is below the March estimate of 86.51 million and compares to 83.60 million last year. The decrease in acres can be attributed to the increase in corn acres reported last week.
• Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report, and estimates range from 63 to 68% for the good/excellent rating which was 67% last week. The average trade guess is 66%, but it could come in higher given the improved weather conditions last week in the central and eastern Corn Belt.
• According to Friday’s CFTC report, funds were heavy sellers across the ag complex and sold 23,693 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 129,663 contracts. Short sellers likely bought back a portion of their position today following Friday’s report.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed with double-digit gains across all three US futures classes. With the winter wheat harvest likely past the halfway mark, some harvest pressure on the market may start to ease. Paris milling wheat futures also had a strong day, with the front-month September contract gaining 5.50 euros and closing back above the 200-day moving average, indicating signs of recovery. Additionally, the fact that US wheat was technically oversold provided further support to the market today.
• Weekly wheat export inspections at 11.4 mb brought 24/25 total inspections to 50 mb. This is up 24% from a year ago and above the USDA’s estimated pace so far. Wheat exports for 24/25 are projected to be 800 mb.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values finished last week at $226 per mt, down from $231 the previous week. These declining values may limit any potential rallies in the US market. Additionally, SovEcon reported that Russia exported 790,000 mt of grain last week, with 680,000 mt being wheat.
• According to crop agency Emater, the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil is expected to harvest 4.07 mmt of wheat this season, which is about 55% higher than the previous season. This is despite estimates that planted area at, 1.3 million hectares, will be down about 13% from the year prior. An anticipated major jump in wheat yields, by a whopping 77%, is expected to offset the smaller acreage.
• According to their supply ministry, Egypt is expected to increase purchases of wheat from farmers to 3.6 mmt by mid-July. As it currently stands, Egypt has bought 3.55 mmt since the season began in April. The ministry also announced that the local wheat buying season will end in mid-July, stating that their reserves are sufficient for approximately six and a half months.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were mixed today, but the July through December 2024 contracts finished with small gains. The second month chart will roll to August later this week.
• These small gains came despite a weaker spot cheese trade in which the average fell 1.8750 cents to $1.87625/lb. Whey was unchanged at $0.49/lb.
• Spot butter closed 1.25 cents higher to its second highest close in the last 8 months, trailing only the 6/4 high of $3.1625/lb.
• The 2024 Class IV contracts were mostly unchanged with the exception of July and September, which garnered 11 and 12 cents, respectively.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill