The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 3, in Observance of Independence Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• In an overall quiet session, the corn market saw some late session profit taking to finish mixed to lower on the day. Supportive export demand helped lift old crop contracts at the front of the market. September corn gained ¼ cent to 423, but December corn slipped ¾ cent to 441 ½.
• USDA announced weekly export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 25, US exporters reported old crop exports sales of 732,000 MT (28.2 mb) and new crop sales of 768,000 MT (30.2 mb). Both of these totals were within trade expectations. Old crop sales were down 2% from last week and 23% from the 4-week average.
• StoneX Brazil raised their forecast for Brazil corn production again on Thursday. The firm raised the first crop corn slightly to 28.45 MMT, up 15 MT from previous estimates. The second crop production was also raised to 107.5 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from last month. Combined, total production was raised to 138.4 MMT, which is still slightly below last year’s total crop.
• As the market moves into the July 4 weekend, the market will shift its focus on weather going into the middle of July.  This will be the key pollination window. Current forecast and keeping temperatures above normal, but average rainfall. Forecasted rainfall over the weekend will be very key for the market direction on the market open on Sunday night.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans were mixed to end the day and fell from highs earlier this morning. August soybeans gained 3 cents to $11.36-1/4 while November lost 1-1/2 cents in more bull spreading action. August soybean meal gained $0.20 to $305.50 and August soybean oil gained 0.08 cents to 66.77 cents.
• Recent support for soybeans may be coming from low old crop supplies as demand to crush soybeans rises. Many producers are sold out of old crop beans, and high crush margins have created a large incentive to pay up for available cash beans. New crop futures are likely being supported by hope that China will be a buyer this fall.
• Today’s export sales report saw soybean sales below analyst expectations with an increase of 1.5 million bushels for 25/26 and an increase of 6.7 mb for 26/27. This was a marketing year low and was down 91% from the previous week and down 88% from the previous 4-week average. Top buyers were China, Japan, and Taiwan. Last week’s export shipments of 14.3 mb were above the 13.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• StoneX Brazil raised their soybean crop production forecast slightly higher to 182.1 MMT from 181.8 MMT last month. The firm noted a slightly improved yield as the reason for the boost in production.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat faded off daily highs to close in a mixed manner. A combination of harvest pressure on the winter crop, a lack of fresh friendly news, and a lower close for MATIF wheat futures all weighed on the market. In the September contract, Chicago declined 1/4 cent to 599-3/4, Kansas City gained 3-1/2 cents to 638-1/2, and MIAX was up 1/4 cent at 618-3/4.
• The USDA reported an increase of 11.0 mb of wheat export sales for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 13.4 mb, which falls below the 14.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their 775mb export goal. Wheat export commitments have reached 213 mb for 26/27, down 19% from last year.
• The Bangladeshi government has approved the purchase of 220,000 mt of US wheat in a deal between the two governments. In related news, Saudi Arabia is tendering for 655,000 mt of wheat, and Jordan is tendering for 120,000 mt of milling wheat.
• Ukrainian exports of grains and oilseeds in the month of June fell to 3.76 mmt, compared with 4.0 mmt in May. Wheat accounted for 1.60 mmt of that total, however, which was up from 1.29 mmt shipped in May.
• According to China’s National Climate Center, the El Niño weather pattern could reach “strong” or “super strong” intensity by late summer or fall. This is said to be based on both domestic and international climate models. This has the potential to bring severe wind and heavy rain to China. In the Southern Hemisphere this could mean drought for large wheat producers such as Australia.
• Over the next five days, cooler weather is expected in the Pampas area of Argentina with the potential for light frost. After that, temperatures are expected to warm up a bit. This should benefit wheat sowing, but heavy rains next week may lead to delays.
• According to the USDA, as of June 30, an estimated 47% of US winter wheat acres are experiencing drought conditions, down 10% from the previous week. During the same time period, spring wheat area in drought declined 6% to 19%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV was down again with August losing 25 cents, posting a $17.70 close.
• Spot butter was 4.25 cents lower today, dropping 1.25 cents on the week. Powder lost 9.25 cents from last Friday, losing 3 cents today.
• Class III was a mixed bag today with all single-digit moves. August lost a penny to move to $16.07.
• Cheese was up slightly, gaining 0.375 cents on the week. Whey was unchanged today and on the week at $0.6850/lb.
• The Dairy Products Production report for May showed all four major products up on a year-over-year basis (see below).

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty