TFM Daily Market Summary 07-03-2023

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Tuesday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day


  • The corn market was digesting Friday’s bearish USDA corn acre numbers, weather forecast, and technical weakness as prices drifted lower into the close of the session. Price action remains weak as Dec corn failed to push back through the key $5.00 price level on the day.
  • December corn futures posted a new low for the move, pushing past the low established on 5/18. Finishing with a lower range close, the weak price action will likely keep sellers active on Wednesday as long as support price news is lacking in the market.
  • Large areas of the corn belt saw greater than one inch of rainfall over the past few days, which will likely help some areas in need. Many areas of the corn belt are still overall deficient on rainfall totals, and timely rains will be necessary. Forecasts going into next week are still showing a cooler and wetter overall bias.
  • The USDA will release weekly crop progress report late on Monday afternoon, and analysts are expecting corn conditions to improve slightly to 51% good/excellent, up 1% from last week. Illinois will still be a watched state as decent rainfall coverage occurred over the weekend, and ratings should stabilize.
  • The USDA released weekly export inspections on Monday morning and U.S. exporters shipped 643,000 MT of corn last week. This total was higher than last week’s totals, but year-over-year exports are still lagging by 31%.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher after Friday’s huge rally, but November beans backed significantly off their highs overnight where they reached the highest levels since late February. Soybean meal closed lower while soybean oil closed higher.
  • On Friday, the USDA estimated soybeans at 83.5 million acres, far below the average trade guess of 87.7 million acres and the previous USDA estimate of 87.5 ma. US quarterly soy stocks came in at 796 million bushels, below the trade guess of 812 mb but overshadowed by the huge drop in acres.
  • Crop progress will be released later today, and it is expected that good to excellent ratings will increase after the recent rains in some of the driest areas of the Corn Belt. Soybeans are expected to improve by 1% to 52% good to excellent, but that number may come in higher.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 22,530 contracts, increasing their net long position to 99,480 contracts.


  • The European Union is considering letting the Russian Agricultural Bank back into the global SWIFT program. This reduction of sanctions is an effort to get Russia to extend the Black Sea corridor once again – last week Russia said they do not have reason to extend it beyond expiration on July 17. Meanwhile, Russia continues to lead the world for cheap wheat exports, which remains an anchor for US export demand.
  • News outlets are reporting that Ukraine is conducting drills for a radiation exposure emergency. According to Ukraine officials, Russia has planted explosives at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. This is the same plant that has had several other scares over the past months after being disconnected from the power grid.
  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 12.4 mb for the week ending 6/29 were 64% higher than the week prior 23% higher last year and bring total 23/24 inspections to 40.2 mb.
  • As of June 27, funds reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat from about 90,000 contracts to about 55,000 contracts.
  • Weather over the next seven days is expected to bring more rain to the western corn belt, which may continue to slow harvest in Kansas and Nebraska.


  • August Class III futures put in a new contract low at $14.53, 33 cents beneath Friday’s close, but finished down 6 cents at $14.80.
  • Spot cheese had a rare positive close, up 1.75 cents at $1.3575/lb. Blocks have moved to a 7 cent premium over barrels which is a good sign.
  • The Class IV market saw only the September and October contracts move today in quiet holiday week action.
  • Spot butter’s close at $2.4675/lb today is the highest since late December as it tries to break higher out of its recent range.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Amanda Brill

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