TFM Daily Market Summary 07-03-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices Will Be Closed
Thursday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day



  • Corn futures failed to find any traction before the 4th of July holiday, as the market stayed under pressure with weakness in the wheat market, and an overall benign weather forecast going into the end of the week.
  • Weather forecasts stay friendly for crops going into the holiday. Weather models are looking for rain across portions of Illinois, Indiana into Ohio for the end of the week, with above normal overall temps. The market will be shifting its focus to August weather after the holiday.
  • The USDA will release the weekly export sales report on Friday morning before the market opens. Expectations are for new corn sales to range from 500,000 – 900,000 mt for old crop, and up to 400,000 mt for new. With the expanded potential supply in front of the corn market, export demand will be key in the weeks ahead to cut into that projected supply picture.
  • Despite the holiday, Friday’s trade could be key in setting the direction of the corn market next week. The failed attempt to push higher on Tuesday and today’s weakness leave the door open for downside pressure. A weaker trading session on Friday with an overall friendly weather forecast could set the tone for next week.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the third consecutive day ahead of the 4th of July holiday tomorrow. Support has mainly come from higher soybean oil which has closed higher for 6 consecutive days at this point. Soybean meal was mixed again with lower closes in the front months and higher closes in the deferred.
  • This morning, the USDA announced a flash export sale of 110,100 mt (4 MB) of soybeans to unknown destinations. This sale was split with 55,100 mt for old crop and 55,000 mt for new.
  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Expectations are for US exporters to report new sales ranging from 200,000 – 600,000 mt for old crop and 50,000 – 150,000 mt of new. New crop sales are off to an extremely slow start. Currently, new crop soybean sales are at 1.225 mmt, a 24-year low for this time of year.
  • After the 4th of July holiday, the market will shift its focus to the August weather forecast. August weather is the key for development of the soybean crop. Weather has been mixed so far this month with necessary rains falling in the eastern Corn Belt, while other areas in the northwest have received too much rain.


  • The wheat complex continued its decline, unable to recover from yesterday’s losses, after encountering overhead resistance near the previous day’s highs. Despite harvest progress surpassing 54%, brisk farmer selling likely added to the overhead pressure. Additionally, Matif wheat closed below significant moving average support, adding carryover weakness to the US wheat markets.
  • Drought conditions are reportedly spreading in the Black Sea region, with expected temperatures in the 90s and 100s, potentially impacting the yields of Russian spring wheat.
  • The ongoing Russian wheat harvest has seen better than expected yields with minimal frost damage as reported by some Russian groups, which has been weighing on Russian export prices, and pressuring world wheat prices since the run up in May on Russian wheat production concerns.
  • SovEcon has raised its estimate of Russia’s wheat crop by 3.4 mmt to 84.1 mmt. For comparison, the USDA’s estimate is 83 mmt, which aligns with most private estimates hovering around 80 mmt.
  • The Minneapolis Grain Exchange reported in its weekly report that spring wheat stocks stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses as of June 30 were down 5.6% to 10.954 million bushels from the same period last year. When compared to the week prior, stocks fell 76,000 bu.


  • Class III milk was able to gain back some of yesterday’s losses as the second month futures contract August was up 24 cents to close at $19.85. September and October futures still remain over $20.00 with September closing at $20.29 and October closing at $20.24.
  • Spot cheese had another positive day gaining 1.1250 cents to close at $1.90125/lb. Both blocks and barrels had positive trades with blocks up 1.90 cents and barrels up 1.9025 cents.  Spot whey went unchanged remaining at $0.49 cents.
  • Class IV futures had an inactive day in the futures market with no contracts being traded and the 2024 average remaining at $20.81/cwt.
  • Spot butter lost 0.25 cents today closing at $3.1350/lb, while power gained 1.00 cent to close at $1.18/lb.
  • USDA’s Dairy Products report showed both cheese and butter are up year over year.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


John Heinberg

Sign up to get daily TFM Market Updates straight to your email!

back to TFM Market Updates