CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Today, the corn market recovered its pre-July 4th holiday losses, but the rally lost momentum as it faced resistance near Tuesday’s highs. Since last Friday’s bearish USDA report, corn futures have remained rangebound as they continue to consolidate.
• Today the USDA reported new export sales for the week ending June 27. New sales for the 23/24 season came in at 14.1 mb, with 12.3 mb reported for the 24/25 new crop season. Total shipments of 35.2 mb fell below the 37.1 mb pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn crop is 63% harvested, close to the average pace. However, according to the International Grains Council, US corn FOB values remain slightly cheaper compared to both Argentina and Brazil.
• Weather forecasts remain mostly favorable for crops heading into next week, with additional rainfall expected in parts of the eastern Corn Belt early in the week, on top of recent precipitation. Temperatures are also predicted to stay around average, which may offer some resistance to the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher for the fourth consecutive day following the 4th of July holiday and closed higher on the week. Support today came from strength in both soybean meal and oil, but there was likely also some end of week profit taking by the funds who have a net short position. Weather has been wet overall, and some areas are dealing with flooding which could be detrimental.
• For the week, August soybeans, which are the new front month, were higher by 32 ¾ cents at 1166 ¼ and November gained 25 ¾ cents to 1129 ¾. August soybean meal was higher by $11.20 to $357.20, and August soybean oil gained 5.48 cents to 49.55 cents. Strength continued this week after last Friday’s bullish Stocks and Acreage report.
• The USDA released its export sales report today which was delayed due to the holiday which showed an increase of 8.4 million bushels of soybeans for 23/24 and an increase of 5.5 million bushels for 24/25. Last week’s export shipments of 11.2 mb were below the 13.9 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were to Egypt, the Netherlands, and Mexico.
• There have been rumors that Indonesia and China are headed towards a trade war scenario, with Indonesia potentially placing a 200% import tariff on Chinese goods in order to protect its domestic producers. This could cause China to look elsewhere for soybean oil, potentially the US.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed sharply higher across the complex. Support came from a higher close in Matif wheat futures and a lower close for the US Dollar Index after it fell through some moving average support. Additionally, some estimates of declining yields for the French crop are also bullish.
• According to Intercereales and Arvalis, French wheat crop yields are expected to decline by 13% year over year to 6.4 mt per hectare. This decrease is attributed to very wet weather; initial rains caused planting delays, and additional rains during the growing season led to issues with weeds and disease. If accurate, this yield decline would be about 11% below the average and the lowest since 2016.
• The USDA reported an increase of 29.6 mb of wheat export sales for 24/25. Shipments of 11.3 mb last week fell below the 15.6 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 800 mb. In addition, US wheat sales commitments for 24/25 are at 254 mb, which is up 49% from a year ago.
• Since their season began on July 1, Ukraine has exported 315,000 mt of grain according to their ag ministry. Of this total, 169,000 mt is wheat, a significant increase from the 9,000 mt exported during the same period last year
• According to FAO-AMIS, 24/25 global wheat stockpiles are estimated at 308.4 mmt, up from their June estimate of 306.8 mmt. Additionally, world wheat production is forecasted at 789.1 mmt which is about equal to the year prior.
• According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 85.3% of the 24/25 wheat crop has now been planted, a 4.3% increase from the previous week. The planted area was kept unchanged at 6.3 million hectares, compared to the 5.9 million hectares planted last year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures contracts continued Wednesday’s rally on Friday. The August futures contract was able to close back above $20/cwt for the first time in a week. November futures also closed at the $20.00 level for the first time since the contract’s inception.
• Spot cheese ended the week unchanged at $1.90125/lb. Whey gained 0.25 cents to close at $0.4925/lb.
• Class IV milk was relatively uneventful but still saw two 2024 futures contracts trade higher with the 2024 Class IV average also closing a penny higher at $20.82/cwt.
• Spot butter lost another 0.25 cents today closing at $3.1325/lb. Powder was unchanged to end the week at $1.18/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill