TFM Daily Market Summary 07-08-2024


  • Strong selling pressure across the grain markets fueled by technical selling and a friendly weather forecast weighed heavily on the corn market to start the week. December corn futures lost 3.83%, closing at a new low for the move.
  • Corn charts look defensive technically as prices pushed through the low established on June 28 after the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports. The soft technical close looks to have the December corn market ready to test the key psychological 400 price.
  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn to unknown destinations this morning. The total sales were 135,636 mt, split with 50,800 mt for the 23/24 marketing year and 84,800 mt for the 24/25 marketing year.
  • According to the USDA, as of July 2, just 7% of US corn acres were experiencing drought. While this is a 1% increase from the previous week, it is well below the 67% level a year ago. With growing conditions mostly favorable for most of the Midwest, corn may be difficult to rally without a shift in weather.
  • China is facing extreme weather; their summer has been excessively hot and dry in areas, with flooding and typhoons in other areas. This week there have been flood alerts in multiple provinces, and there is concern about both the Yellow and Yangtze rivers overflowing. All of this could affect corn production, among other crops, and lead to domestic food inflation.


  • Soybeans ended the day lower in a day of very negative trade across the entire grain complex that was spurred by weather forecasts over the weekend showing hurricane Beryl bringing rains to the eastern Corn Belt. In November soybeans, today’s losses wiped out all of last week’s gains. Both soybean meal and oil closed lower today as well.
  • This morning’s Export Inspections report showed 10 mb of soybeans were inspected for export in the week ending July 4 which was on the lower side and brings total inspections for 23/24 to 1.537 billion bushels, down 16% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total soybean exports for 23/24 at 1.700 bb.
  • There have been no deliveries so far this month against the July soybean contract while domestic crush demand remains firm. Additionally, the July/August soybean spread has moved to its highs while the August/November spread has widened significantly to 50 ½ cents.
  • The CFTC data was delayed due to the holiday and will be out later this afternoon, but it is estimated that funds hold a net short position of 119,000 contracts of soybeans and 74,000 contracts of bean oil. They are also estimated to be long over 80,000 contracts of soybean meal.


  • Wheat closed sharply lower alongside corn and soybeans. A relatively benign weather forecast for the majority of the Midwest has offered weakness to corn and beans, and without their support, it will be difficult for wheat to rally. Furthermore, continued winter wheat harvest pressure, a sharply lower close for Paris wheat futures, and a higher US Dollar Index today all created downward pressure.
  • Weekly wheat inspections at 12.5 mb bring 24/25 total inspections to 64 mb. That is 14% above a year ago and inspections are running ahead of the USDA’s projected pace. Additionally, they are anticipating 800 mb of wheat exports in 24/25 which would be up 11% from last year.
  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, the country has harvested 1.62 mmt of wheat as of July 5 across 482,200 hectares. In contrast, last year’s harvest for the same timeframe was significantly lower, with only 172,000 metric tons harvested from 51,400 hectares.
  • As reported by Reuters, Iraq has obtained 5.9 mmt of domestic wheat since their harvest started in April. In addition, according to the Iraqi grain board, the country is expected to purchase a total of 6.3 mmt by the end of harvest.


  • Class III milk started the week off with pretty heavy selling in the Monday morning session. The market was under pressure from a falling feed trade that took corn down 17c and soybean meal down $11.00 per ton today.
  • During the cheese session, futures reversed and finished the day strongly green. August added 30c to $20.43 and finished 67c off the low.
  • In the cheese session, blocks jumped 6c to $1.96/lb while barrels added 3.75c to $1.94/lb. There were 3 loads traded in total.
  • The butter market fell 0.25c to $3.13. There was no movement in the Class IV futures on Monday.

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Brandon Doherty

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