CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Despite strong oil prices, corn futures saw the sellers return to the market on Wednesday as prices reversed early session highs. September corn closed 8 ¾ cents lower to 435, and December corn lost 8 cents to 456 ¼.
• Overnight military strikes involving Iran sent crude oil sharply higher, but the grain market largely ignored the move, with traders instead focusing on crop weather and waiting to see whether geopolitical tensions escalate further.
• Forecast models moderated both the heat and rainfall outlook beyond early next week, prompting profit-taking and long liquidation as weather premium faded.
• USDA will release the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning. Last week’s export sales were near 1.5 MMT, split fairly evenly between old crop and new crop corn. USDA has not announced a published corn sale since June 23. Expectations are for corn carryout to decrease slightly for both the 2025-26 and the 2026-27 marketing years.
• On Friday, the USDA will release the July WASDE/Crop Production report. This report will give the market a look at the new balance sheet after the acre adjustments and corn supply from the June 30 Planted Acres and Grain Stocks report.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower, breaking 2 days of sharp gains despite a jump in crude oil. August soybeans lost ½ cent to $11.93-1/4 while November lost 5-1/2 cents to $11.92-1/4. August soybean meal lost $3.90 to $312.30 and soybean oil gained 2.26 cents to 70.85 thanks to over a $3.30 jump in August crude oil.
• This morning, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 472,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total, 136,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year, and 336,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2026/2027 marketing year. This could explain the strength in old crop contracts.
• Over the past few days, Iran has attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Last night, President Trump attacked Iran in retaliation, and this morning declared the cease-fire over. This will likely result in the closure of the Strait again, and crude oil prices are now up $3.44 to $73.88 a barrel.
• For Friday’s WASDE report, soybean ending stocks for 26/27 are seen 22 mb higher at 332 mb, yield is expected to be 0.5 bpa higher at 53.0 bpa, and both Argentinian and Brazilian production are expected to be slightly higher.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Today wheat closed in the red, led by the Chicago class – this was despite a surge in crude oil prices on renewed Middle East tensions. Harvest pressure likely played a part in today’s lower trade, as did spillover weakness from the row crops. In the September contract, Chicago fell 10-3/4 cents to 607-3/4, Kansas City dropped 7-1/2 cents to 645-1/4, and MIAX lost 2-1/4 cents to 630-3/4.
• According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports in the 25/26 season were up 8% year over year at 23.4 mmt. Meanwhile, imports at almost 4 mmt were down 46% year over year. The export season ended on June 30. In addition, total EU grain exports increased by 15% over the year prior, to 39 mmt.
• Rusagrotrans has indicated that Russia’s 25/26 wheat exports reached 48 mmt. This is up almost 14% versus the previous season at 42.2 mmt. In addition, they reported that Russian wheat export values fell $1/mt last week, compared to the week prior. For reference, during the same period, US wheat increased by $16/mt and French wheat was up $1/mt.
• Ukrainian farmer union, UAC, has stated that rain over the next week could cause harvest delays for both barley and wheat crops, while potentially affecting quality as well. Storms are expected to impact western, northern, and central regions. Ukraine’s economy ministry is forecasting a 2026 wheat harvest of up to 23 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk faded during Wednesday’s session, with the August contract falling 15 cents to close at $16.24.
• Moderate strength returned to Class IV milk, with the August contract gaining 23 cents to close at $17.73.
• Spot cheese closed down 0.025 cents at $1.51250/lb. Spot whey remained unchanged at $0.6725/lb.
• Spot butter was unchanged at $1.650/lb. Spot powder was up 2.5 cents at $1.500/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty