CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market finished mixed on the day, as front months, under the influence of July expiration on Friday, posted small gains but deferred contracts failed to find any footing as December corn traded lower, marking another new low for the downward move.
• Recent rainfall looks to be beneficial across the eastern corn belt with the path of tropical storm Beryl moving through that region. Corn in that area is in pollination and the moisture should provide a good base for this stage.
• The weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.064 million barrels/day last week, but still up 2% year over year. A total of 105.6 mb of corn was used last week, which is slightly below the pace needed to reach the USDA marketing year target.
• The USDA will release the weekly export sales report tomorrow morning. Expectations are for new sales to range from 300,000-850,000 mt for old crop and up to 500,000 mt for new crop sales. Corn sales have softened in the past couple of weeks, as demand may be tapering at the end of the marketing year.
• The corn market will likely stay choppy going into the USDA Crop Production report on Friday. The USDA will be adding in the numbers from the Acreage and Grain Stocks reports on June 28. Expectations are for corn carryout for the 24/25 marketing year to reach 2.272 billion bushels, up 170 mb from last month.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed lower for the third consecutive day after rains fell throughout the eastern Corn Belt yesterday from the remnants of hurricane Beryl. Good weather conditions have continued to pressure soybeans along with the rest of the ag complex, despite a sale to China this morning which did not move prices higher. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well.
• On Friday, the USDA will release its July WASDE report, and early estimates are expecting that US stockpiles for 23/24 will increase slightly by 3 mb while new crop is expected to be unchanged. Brazilian soybean production estimates are expected to be lowered to 152.1 mmt from 153.0 mmt last month, with world stockpiles expected to be mostly unchanged.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This confirmed previous rumors and was also the first new crop sale of soybeans to China so far.
• As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts. Hedge funds have sold ag products aggressively throughout the past 6 weeks and are now the shortest they have been since September 2019.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat was under pressure again, closing lower across all three US futures classes. Kansas City contracts led the decline with double-digit losses, followed by Chicago futures. This weakness was driven by losses in Paris milling wheat futures and a further drop in US soybean futures. Additionally, momentum indicators point to the downside for wheat, despite futures being near or at oversold levels.
• For the season that just ended on June 30, the European Union’s soft wheat exports reached 31 mmt, representing a 2% decline from the 31.6 mmt of shipments last year, according to the European Commission. North African nations were the top importers of this wheat, with Morocco taking 4.28 mmt, Nigeria 3.14 mmt, and Algeria 2.9 mmt.
• According to an agricultural regulatory agency, Rosselkhoznadzor, Russian grain and grain product exports reached 89.3 mmt in the 23/24 season. This is up 21% from the previous year. This data, based on phytosanitary certificates, also indicated that India’s imports of Russian grain during 23/24 increased by a factor of 22 compared to the previous year.
• Throughout the next several days, above normal temperatures are expected to move east through the Canadian prairies, and is likely to persist into next week. Much of this area has good soil moisture levels, with some places even in surplus. So, this drier and warmer pattern may actually benefit crops and spring wheat development.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures saw gains after yesterday’s losses. August, the second month contract, was up 6 cents to close at $20.19 and September was up 13 cents to close at $20.69.
• Spot cheese was up 0.1250 cents today to close at $1.9550/lb. Blocks gained 0.25 cents to close at $1.97/lb while barrels remained unchanged at $1.94/lb.
• Class IV futures remained unchanged today with no volume being traded for any contracts.
• Class IV futures contracts all remain over the $20 mark, despite the lack of volume being traded in the market. 
• Spot butter was down today, losing 3.50 cents to close at $3.1050/lb. Spot powder remained unchanged at $1.18/lb.

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Author

Amanda Brill