CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished lower on the session as improved crop ratings and a more moderate forecasts limited upside gains on Tuesday. September corn lost 2 ½ cents to 438 ½, and December corn slipped 2 ¾ cents to 460 ½.
• The July corn futures reached contract expiration on Tuesday. July futures final trade was 4 cents lower to 433 ¾.
• After this week’s heat, forecasts shift to cooler temperatures and normal to above-normal rainfall into late July. The improved outlook should support crop development as pollination expands.
• The USDA raised crop ratings for corn to 68% G/E, up 1% over last week. This was 6% below last year but trending 3% over the 5-year average. Pollination is beginning as 34% of the crop is in silking stage.
• Brazil’s CONAB raised its second-crop corn estimate to 109.43 MMT, up 1.56 MMT from June. Combined with Argentina’s projected 63 MMT record crop, global export supplies remain ample through the summer.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower as a result of improving crop conditions and a slightly cooler weather forecast. August soybeans lost 4 cents to 1192-3/4 while November lost 3-3/4 cents to 1191. August soybean meal gained $0.20 to $317.40 while August soybean oil lost 0.42 cents to 72.40 cents despite gains in crude oil of $1.50.
• Monday’s USDA Crop Progress Report rated the U.S. soybean crop 65% good to excellent, up 1 point from the previous week and above trade expectations. The crop also remains ahead of normal development, with 50% blooming and 19% setting pods, both well ahead of the five-year average.
• This morning, CONAB released its July estimates for Brazilian soybean production. Production estimates increased to 180.57 mmt which was up from 180.23 mmt in June and 171.5 mmt at this time last year. Ending stocks were reduced to 8.79 mmt as a result of higher exports.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections totaling 15.4 million bushels for the week ending July 9. This put total inspections for 25/26 at 1.407 billion bushels which is down 18% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating that exports will be down 20% from last year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed higher across all three exchanges as continued disruptions to Black Sea shipping, a weaker U.S. dollar, and firmer MATIF wheat prices supported the market. In the September contract, Chicago gained 9-3/4 cents to 645, Kansas City was up 11-3/4 cents at 678, and MIAX rallied 4-3/4 cents to 658.  
• USDA reported winter wheat harvest at 67% complete, ahead of both last year (62%) and the five-year average (61%). Spring wheat conditions improved to 58% good to excellent, though the poor-to-very-poor rating also increased to 10%, highlighting mixed crop prospects.
• News outlets have reported that the Don-Azov channel remains restricted. And while the Azov Sea itself remains open, the Kerch Strait is fully closed (this connects the Azov Sea and Black Sea). Therefore, this continues to affect logistics and shipments in that region. Nevertheless, the Russian Union of Grain Exporters believes they will still be able to meet export commitments by using different trade routes.
• According to CONAB, 90.4% of Brazil’s wheat area has been sown as of July 3. Additionally, the 2026 harvest has reached 0.9% complete. It is reported that Brazil’s domestic wheat prices have recently risen on concerns of tighter global supplies; in last week’s WASDE, the USDA projected US wheat production at the lowest level in over 50 years.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures started off higher but faded after the spot trade, despite a higher close for both cheese and whey.
• Cheese was up another 2.25 cents to close over $1.60/lb for the first time in two months. Whey settled higher at $0.70/lb.
• The Class IV market began and ended the trading day lower. The August contract gave back 29 cents for a $17.84 settlement.
• Spot powder was down another 2.50 cents today to close at $1.5275/lb, while butter was unchanged.

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Author

John Heinberg