CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market gave back a portion of Tuesday’s gains following disappointing export sales, while wheat lost some of the upward momentum it had built earlier in the week. September corn lost 6 cents to 441 ½, while December corn fell back 5 ½ cents to 464.
• The USDA released weekly export sales on Thursday morning, and for the second week in a row, corn sales were disappointing. For the week ending July 9, new exports sales for old crop totaled 315,000 MT (12.4 mb) and new crop sales of 311,2000 MT (12.3 mb). For old crop, this was a marketing year low and below expectations.
• Total export sales for the 2025-26 Marketing year have reached 3.396.7 BB. This past the USDA target of 3.325 BB for the marketing year. The U.S. has 520 mb left to ship before the marketing year closes on Aug 31. There is a strong probability that all those sales will not get shipped and could be added back on the USDA cold crop balance sheet.
• The National Weather Service issued its latest 30-day forecast on Thursday. Expectation for the corn belt to be cooler and wetter than normal into Mid-August. The wettest areas are forecasted for the western Corn Belt.  If realized, this forecast will be favorable for crop development.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower, reversing from overnight highs despite strong export sales. August soybeans lost 7-1/4 cents to $11.95 while November lost 6-3/4 cents to $11.95. There is currently very little carry in the market. August soybean meal gained $4.00 to $322.90 and August soybean oil lost 0.49 cents to 72.43 cents as it followed crude oil lower.
• Today’s export sales report exceeds analyst estimates for soybeans with an increase of 6.9 million bushels for 25/26 and an increase of 65.0 mb for 26/27. This was up sharply from last week but down 22% from the previous week. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 16.7 mb were above the 15.8 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.
• Although it failed to provide support to prices today, China purchased 1.06 MMT of U.S. soybeans last week, while an additional 625,000 metric tons were sold to unknown destinations. Combined new-crop sales totaled 3.6 MMT. However, China will need to significantly increase its purchases of U.S. soybeans to meet its 25 MMT import commitment for the year.
• Yesterday’s NOPA crush report showed 214.34 million bushels crushed in June which exceeded trade expectations. This was up 2.7% from the 208.79 mb crushed in May and up 15.7% from June 2025. Strong crush demand has been a driving factor for high soybean prices.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed mixed, with light bear spreading noted in both winter wheat classes. The weakness was likely driven by profit-taking after prices reached near-term highs, technical resistance on the charts, and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index. That said, volatility is expected to remain elevated as the market continues to react to headlines from the Black Sea region. In the September contract, Chicago lost 2-3/4 cents to 674-3/4, Kansas City was down 3-1/2 cents at 716-1/2, and MIAX gained 2 cents to 685-1/4.
• The USDA reported an increase of 8.6 mb of wheat export sales for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 15.5 mb, which was ahead of the 14.6 mb pace needed per week to reach their 775 mb export goal. Total wheat export commitments for 26/27 have reached 233 mb, down 23% from last year.
• According to the USDA’s drought monitor, as of July 14, an estimated 48% of U.S. winter wheat acres remain in drought, up 1% from the previous week. Meanwhile, spring wheat saw a jump of 5% of the area in drought to 24% – this may be reflected in next week’s crop condition report. However, this is still 12% below the drought reading at this time last year.
• According to German farm co-op group, DRV, their nation’s 2026 wheat harvest is expected to fall 12%. This would bring the crop down to 19.9 mmt versus 22.6 mmt last year. This is said to be the result of excessive heat, which caused premature ripening, and therefore reduced grain size and yields.
• Despite heat waves having caused significant yield losses, French wheat exports are expected to rise. FranceAgriMer has increased their estimate of 25/26 wheat exports by 0.2 mmt to 15.4 mmt, which would be up about 48% year over year. This is said to be largely due to sales outside of the EU, which are estimated to be up 112% compared to last season.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• August Class III futures tacked on 58 cents to post a $17.62 settlement today, its highest close since May 20th.
• Spot cheese was up a bit on no loads traded to move back over $1.60/lb. Whey lost a half cent.
• Class IV sellers ruled the day with double-digit losses in the August through December contracts. The second month settled at $17.54.
• While butter was up a quarter cent, powder fell 2.75 cents for a weekly total of 8.25 cents so far. It closed at $1.4725/lb/

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Brandon Doherty