CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures ended the three-session winning streak as the market posted marginal losses on Thursday. A disappointing export sales report and weakness in the wheat market pressured corn futures in the session.
• The USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending July 10, U.S. exporters sold 97,600 Mt (3.8 mb) for the 2024-25 marketing year. This total was well below expectations and a marketing year low. New sales were lacking, but a large portion of sales to unknown destinations were switched to a known sale in the week. New sales for the 2025-26 marketing year were 565,900 MT (22.3 mb), which was within expectations.
• Wheat futures pressured the corn market, as wheat prices traded to 2-month lows. A firming U.S. dollar and global harvest pressure limited the market. The technical picture of the wheat market looks weak, which could limit potential gains in the corn market.
• Over the next 7 days, the forecast for the Corn Belt looks to remain warm and wet. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal, but it is predicted that most of the Corn Belt will see 140% of normal rainfall according to forecast maps.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day but may have hit some technical resistance at the 200-day moving average in the November contract at $10.30. Weather models have not turned dry for August, so funds may be taking profits on short positions. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.
• Today’s export sales report saw bean sales within trade expectations with an increase of 10.0 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 29.5 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Taiwan, Germany, and Algeria. Last week’s export shipments of 10.2 mb were below the 15.9 mb needed each week.
• U.S. soybean yields are reported steady with improving condition scores thanks to favorable weather so far in July. Production is estimated at 118 mmt on average, but a heatwave forecast at the end of the month could negatively impact the crop during prime growth period.
• Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption has reached 48% of its target as of July 16, and the Indonesian government is reportedly running tests to increase the mandatory biodiesel mix to 50%. Indonesian palm oil exports for June rose by 30.5%.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed with modest losses across the board, pressured by a recovery and a new near-term high for the U.S. Dollar Index. Additionally, Russia currently holds the most competitive wheat prices globally, and there is speculation that it may become more aggressive in targeting sales to the Asian market.
• The USDA reported an increase of 18.2 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 15.9 mb, which falls under the 16.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Total 25/26 export commitments are now at 303 mb, up 7% from last year.
• As of July 15, drought readings increased for both U.S. winter and spring wheat areas. An estimated 36% of the spring wheat crop is experiencing drought, up 1% from last week. During the same period, winter wheat area drought conditions rose from 26% to 30%.
• On a bullish note, the Rosario Grain Exchange has revised their estimate of Argentine wheat production, lowering it by 700,000 mt to 20 mmt. Elsewhere, Turkey’s wheat harvest is also expected to fall by 3 mmt to 18 mmt due to drought.
• FranceAgriMer has said that French wheat stocks for the 25/26 season are expected to grow 66% year over year to 3.87 mmt. If realized, this would also be a 20-year high. Additionally, they are projecting that 25/26 soft wheat exports will total 14.32 mmt, compared with 10.36 mmt shipped during the 24/25 marketing year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• August Class III futures were up for the second day in a row, gaining 26 cents to move to $17.72.
• Spot cheese gained 0.75 cents while whey was unchanged today for a quiet spot trade.
• Minor gains in Class IV futures took place today with the second month contract closing up a dime at $19.20.
• Spot butter was unchanged today, entering Friday down 6 cents on the week. Powder gained a penny on 12 loads traded.

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Author

Brandon Doherty