TFM Daily Market Summary 07-20-2023


  • Corn futures consolidated on the session as disappointing price action in the wheat market limited the potential in the corn market on the day. Prices traded towards the top of yesterday’s range, holding on to some of the gains.
  • Weather forecasts are still a main focus. Buying support was limited as early long-range projections for the month of August turned temperatures to a normal to below-normal range and precipitation to normal to above-normal to start August and longer-term into the fall.
  • Ongoing military action by Russia against the city of Odesa and its port helped support overnight price action, but as prices failed to push through yesterday’s highs, the market saw some profit taking.
  • Weekly export sales saw old crop sales of 9.3 MB and new crop sales of 19.4 MB. New crop sales were above expectations for the week, but overall export performance is still behind pace to reach the adjusted USDA export targets.
  • August grain options expire on Friday, and with the recent price strength, the market may be poised for some volatility as those options are set to be exited, expired, or be transitioned into futures positions.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher in the August contract but lower in all deferred contracts with soybean meal lower and soybean oil higher. Pressure came from a new longer-term weather forecast that is showing lower temperatures and increased rain chances.
  • With Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, less sunflower meal and oil will be exported out of that region which has given other veg oils a boost. Palm oil closed 3.9% higher today along with soybean oil.
  • Net sales of soybeans were sluggish again with 4.7 mb for 22/23, which was up 58% from the previous week but down 43% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 23/24 were 27.9 mb, and exports of 8.8 mb were down 29% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average.
  • Brazil’s soy exports to China were up 32% on the year as China capitalizes on the cheaper Brazilian soybeans. As a result, China, the world’s biggest importer of soy, has been largely absent from US purchases, having booked only 70 mb of US beans to date.


  • The USDA reported an increase of 6.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, with exports running behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s estimate; 14.3 mb are needed each week and last week shipments were only 8.7 mb.
  • In addition to the recent attacks on Ukrainian ports, Russia has said that they have also planted mines in sea lanes. With the closure of the corridor and increased Russian hostility, Ukraine may still try to move some grain via river and rail. The question is, how much can they export with these methods?
  • Poland, along with four other EU nations, has vowed to extend the restrictions on importing Ukrainian grain into those countries. The import ban was originally put in place to protect profitability for their farmers, as an influx of supply from Ukraine would lead to lower domestic prices. Poland’s current ban expires in September.
  • Based on satellite imagery, Refinitiv Commodities Research has increased their estimate of US 23/24 winter wheat production by 1% to 46.8 mmt. Spring wheat production, however, was lowered 2% to 14.5 mmt.
  • September Chicago wheat’s 200-day moving average is at 746-1/2. Today that contract traded just above that level before backing off, indicating that it may be acting as an area of resistance.


  • Spot cheese was up 12.75 cents today to push to $1.6525/lb, its highest point since mid-April and the largest daily gain in more than three years.
  • Class III futures followed suit with August closed 53 cents higher and September up 72, hitting limit up at one point.
  • Butter and powder were unchanged in the spot market but Class IV futures found some spillover support.
  • June milk production was essentially unchanged from last year, totaling 18.916 billion lbs. Cow numbers were lower both YoY and MoM.

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Amanda Brill

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