CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw consolidative trade on Tuesday as the market took a pause with choppy trade, as the wheat market led over the direction of the corn trade. Despite trading lower on the day, corn futures traded near the top end of the trading range towards the close on favorable price action.
• The USDA released weekly crop ratings on Monday afternoon. US crop was rated 57% good to excellent, which was unchanged from last week and slightly below expectations. The rating was 4% below last year’s 61% good to excellent rating for the week.
• Hot weather forecasts support the market as high temperatures pushing into the 100-degree range will work into the Corn Belt. The excessive heat could impact yield with 68% of the corn crop in the silking stage. These high temperatures arrive in the key pollination window for many corn acres. Temperatures are expected to moderate next week.
• The wheat market is leading the corn market direction. Chicago wheat prices had a volatile session but closed above key resistance. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the improved technical picture could trigger additional strength in the wheat market, which could spill over into the corn market, triggering additional short covering in the corn market.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower but came back significantly from the overnight lows. Soybean meal ended higher, while soybean oil was mixed with the two front months closing higher and the deferred months lower.
• The lows earlier in the day were partially a result of palm oil, which ended the day 2.3% lower, which then dragged down soybean oil. Soybean oil recovered on news that the number one veg oil importer, India, would import 46% more edible oils in July than the previous month.
• With the Black Sea grain deal ended and the fighting between Russia and Ukraine escalating, exporting sunflower meal and oil out of the region will be difficult, which should give support to soybean meal and oil, as India and other countries appear to be stocking up.
• The USDA released their Crop Progress report yesterday afternoon, which showed the soybean crop’s good to excellent rating slip by 1 point to 54% after heat and periods of dryness. 70% of the crop is blooming and 35% are setting pods, both figures are ahead of the yearly average. Missouri and Michigan received good to excellent ratings of only 27% and 33%, and the upcoming hot and dry forecast could significantly impact yields.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• According to the USDA, the winter wheat crop is 68% harvested, still behind the average of 77% complete. Additionally, the spring wheat crop condition declined 2% from last week, now seen at 49% good to excellent.
• After trading both sides of unchanged, Chicago wheat posted small gains today. For the second day in a row, December Chicago wheat closed above the 200-day moving average, which it has not closed above since November 2022 (though it did trade above that level on June 26^th).
• The market may have taken a bit of a breather today, with no headlines of new Russian attacks. The grain warehouses and infrastructure that were recently damaged along the Danube River do raise the question as to how much grain Ukraine will be able to export though. After the attacks, 30 vessels are said to be stranded along the river.
• Russia’s internal wheat prices are said to be surging, but they remain the world’s cheapest source of wheat, now seen at $242 per metric ton.
• Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Vershinin, stated that there are currently no talks in regard to resuming the Black Sea Grain initiative. Since the closure of the deal, Ukraine has asked the European Union for an increased volume of shipments via alternative routes / methods. Several surrounding nations still have a ban on Ukrainian grain imports, however.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• After three huge daily moves higher in a row, August Class III futures were down 9 cents today. The deferred months faced heavier, double-digit losses.
• Both cheddar blocks and barrels were unchanged in today’s spot trade with no loads traded, as both buyers and sellers moved to the sidelines.
• Class IV futures were unchanged to down slightly. Volume was very light with only one contract moved out in April of next year.
• Spot butter, like cheese, was unchanged with no trades while powder garnered a quarter-cent gain.

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Author

Amanda Brill