TFM Daily Market Summary 07-27-2023


  • Corn futures saw mixed to mostly lower trade on Thursday, as improved rainfall forecasts and ongoing concerns regarding demand had sellers in control in the market.
  • Weather models are forecasting improved rain chances into the weekend across Iowa, Illinois, and into Indiana, as potential storm clusters could build overtop of the heat ridge.
  • Weekly export sales were lackluster, as the USDA reported new sales of 12.4 mb of old crop and 13.2 mb of new crop sales last week. These totals were within market expectations. China remains inactive in the U.S. corn export market.
  • An above-normal temperature forecast is still of concern into next week in large areas of the Corn Belt. The overall lack of moisture and heat may potentially stress the crop as the majority of the crop has moved into the pollination and ear fill stages.


  • Soybeans began the day higher and were 13 cents away from the Nov contract high in the overnight, but ultimately closed lower along with lower soybean meal and oil despite a flash sale and decent export sales.
  • A private sale of 256,000 metric tons of new crop soybeans was reported to unknown destinations, which makes the third flash sale in the past two days. All three sales were to unknown destinations and were for the 23/24 marketing year. It is possible that the purchaser is China.
  • Today’s export sales report showed soybean exports at 27 mb, which was in line with expectations. Old crop commitments were at 1.939 bill, down 11% from last year’s pace, which is more than the USDA forecast of down 8%.
  • Weather forecasts may have added some pressure to the soy complex today. While the next week is still slated to be hot and dry, forecasts for the second week and beyond are showing lower temperatures and better chances for rain into the crucial pod fill timeframe.


  • On today’s export sales report, the USDA reported wheat export sales of 8.6 mb for 23/24.
  • After a two-sided trade, Chicago wheat closed the session with losses, KC was mixed, but MPLS posted gains. This could be due to the mounting concern about the spring wheat crop in Canada. While they might be getting some rain soon, that moisture may be too late to help the crop much.
  • A Russian submarine fired missiles overnight, attacking the Odesa port in Ukraine. The wheat market did not seem to care much about this news though. It is worth noting that NATO said they will be increasing surveillance in the Black Sea with aircraft and drones.
  • Argentina is still dry – it remains to be seen how that will impact their wheat planted acreage. Elsewhere, Agritel is estimating French soft wheat production up 1.1 mmt from last year at 34.8 mmt. This is a 1.3% increase from the five-year average.
  • The spring wheat tour’s second day in North Dakota resulted in a yield estimate of 45.7 bpa. This is down 2 bpa from last year for the same area, and the USDA is projecting North Dakota yield at 47 bpa).


  • The block/barrel average was down 0.8750 cents to $1.81250/lb on no loads traded. It is still up 9.3750 cents on the week.
  • August, September, and October futures were lower for Class III while the others were unchanged or higher. August futures enter Friday up 27 cents for the week.
  • Class IV futures found some more consistent buying today with the second month August contract up 11 cents to get back over $19.00.
  • Spot butter is up 11 cents on the week so far, adding another couple pennies today. That price has not been above $2.70 since December, closing at $2.6925/lb today.


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John Heinberg

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