CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong selling pressure weighed on row crops on Wednesday as a more crop friendly forecast triggered long liquidation. September corn futures lost 9-1/2 cents to 449, and December corn fell 8-3/4 cents to 471 ¾.
• The most recent weather models are forecasting a wetter and more active pattern over the next couple of weeks, which will help finish out the corn crop and develop the soybean crop.
• Weekly ethanol production climbed to 330 million gallons, up 8 million from the previous week. Corn use totaled 110 million bushels, roughly in line with or slightly ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA’s marketing-year target.
• Corn futures weakened despite crude oil gaining 6–7% as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated. The sharp move higher in energy markets failed to provide support as weather remained the primary market driver.
• USDA will release weekly export sales Thursday morning. Corn sales have disappointed in recent weeks amid higher U.S. prices, strong South American competition, and a stronger U.S. dollar.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures fell sharply as forecasts continued to trend cooler and wetter, overshadowing a more than $5/barrel surge in crude oil following Iranian attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East.
• August soybeans lost 34 cents to 1178 while November lost 27-1/4 cents to 1192-3/4. The close below $12.00 could be significant technically. August soybean meal lost $5.00 to $315.30 and August soybean oil lost 1.59 cents to 69.17 cents. First notice day for all August soy contracts is this Friday.
• Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions falling 3 points to 63% good to excellent following last week’s heat and dryness. However, development remains ahead of normal, with 80% blooming versus a five-year average of 74% and 47% setting pods versus an average of 39%.
• Estimates for Brazilian soy exports and crush amounts in 2026 have increased according to Abiove. The country is now expected to export a record 115.4 million metric tons of soybeans which would be up 1.1% from the estimate in June. Soybean crush in Brazil is expected to rise to 63.3 mmt for the year, up slightly from the last estimate of 63.0 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a two-sided trade, both winter wheat classes posted small losses, while spring wheat made small gains. It is likely that the sharp drop in soybean prices spilled over some pressure into the wheat complex. However, prices may have limited downside potential due to the escalation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. In the September contract, Chicago declined 1-3/4 cents to 660-3/4, Kansas City closed 3/4 cent lower at 725-1/2, and MIAX gained 2-1/2 cents to 705.
• The Turkish government will allow exports of milling wheat in 2026. This would be the first time exports have been allowed in over a year and a half. They stated that production and stocks are currently sufficient for their food supply. Additionally, according to their statistics office, this year’s wheat production is expected to rise by 27% to a record 22.8 mmt. Turkey is typically a major wheat importer, so this is expected to reduce their import needs as well.
• Both Russia and Ukraine continue to strike each other’s ports, grain infrastructure, and ships. This is leading to increasing logistics costs and limited grain movement in the region. Russia has reportedly considered arming their vessels with military personnel and weapons to dissuade attacks and ensure safe passage. Furthermore, three major Black Sea terminals have restricted grain intake.
• Argentina is expected to have warm conditions well into August. This should reduce the risk of any frost damage, which will be favorable for their wheat crop. However, showers have been spotty recently. Conditions are ok right now, but if rainfall totals don’t increase over the next month or so it could be problematic for wheat as it heads into the reproductive stage.
• South Africa is anticipated to plant their smallest wheat crop since 1929 due to rising fuel and fertilizer costs and tightening supplies of those inputs. Wheat planted area is forecasted at 473,000 hectares, down from the previous estimate of 486,400. If realized, this would also be down 8.4% from last season.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class IV milk found support today, with the September contract gaining 31 cents to close at $16.56.
• Spot butter gained 1 cent to close at $1.3900/lb, while spot powder added 2.75 cents to finish the day at $1.4475/lb.
• Spot cheese fell 1.75 cents to close at $1.54875/lb, while spot whey gained 1.50 cents to finish the day at $0.6700/lb.
• Class III milk had a quiet session, with the August contract slipping 4 cents to close at $16.58.

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Author

John Heinberg