CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market broke a three-day lower price streak as the market pulled out minimal gains on the session. The spread between September and December had grown wide, and the market saw some profit taking on that spread, which supported the front end of the corn market.
• Demand for new-crop U.S. corn has improved in recent weeks. Rising Brazilian corn prices — despite a record harvest — have made U.S. corn more competitive on the export market. Thursday’s export sales report is expected to reflect strong new-crop activity.
• Analysts are increasingly projecting a jump in U.S. corn yields in the August WASDE report, with early estimates averaging near 185 bu/acre. A yield at that level could add 350–400 million bushels to the balance sheet, pressuring prices further if demand doesn’t keep pace.
• Weather forecasts stay non-threatening into the first half of August. The combination of cooler than normal temperature and adequate moisture will help support the development of the crop into the finishing stages.
• Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.059 million barrels per day — higher than the prior week, but slightly below year-ago levels. About 105.9 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol, still running behind the pace needed to meet USDA projections for the marketing year.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybean futures closed sharply lower, marking the fourth straight losing session. November contracts fell below $10.00 for the first time since early April, turning that level into potential resistance. Improved weather forecasts and continued demand concerns remain key bearish drivers.
• Both soybean meal and bean oil ended lower, but soybean meal continues to lag due to a global surplus. China, in particular, has excess meal supplies for feed use, raising concerns about export demand for U.S. soybeans this fall.
• With the 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause set to expire on August 12, officials are reportedly working to extend the agreement. However, progress on a broader trade deal remains elusive, and China’s limited cooperation casts doubt on their need for U.S. soybeans in the near term.
• After factoring in import taxes, soybeans shipped from the U.S. Gulf are currently about $30/ton more expensive than Brazilian offerings. As a result, China has sourced nearly all of its soybean imports this year from Brazil and Argentina.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed mixed, with losses in Chicago and Minneapolis contracts, while Kansas City posted slight gains. Continued strength in the U.S. Dollar is weighing on the wheat complex. However, with all three classes near oversold technical levels, the market may be attempting to establish a bottom.
• SovEcon increased its Russian wheat production forecast by 0.6 mmt to 83.6 mmt — just above USDA’s 83.5 mmt estimate. Russian wheat export projections were also lifted by 0.4 mmt to 43.3 mmt, though that remains below USDA’s 46 mmt outlook.
• According to the Ukrainian agriculture ministry, their nation has exported 1.3 mmt of grain since July 1, when the season began. This represents a 62% decrease from the 3.43 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year. Of that total, wheat accounted for 487,000 mt which is down 66% year on year.
• LSEG has kept their 25/26 wheat production estimate for Ukraine unchanged at 20.7 mmt. Average temperatures and drier weather are expected to prevail for the next couple weeks, which should aid harvest. In related news a locust invasion is threatening crops in southern Ukraine. The extent of the damage is not known at this time but is believed to be mostly affecting their sunflower crop.
• The International Grains Council has reported the Russian wheat harvest is 37% done, but production is running about 22% below last year so far. However, harvest has been mostly in southern regions so far and yields are expected to be better in the northern areas.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures struggled to maintain any positive momentum midweek, with all remaining 2025 contracts closing in the red.
• Spot cheese showed modest strength, gaining 2.5 cents to close at $1.67625/lb. In contrast, spot whey slipped 0.75 cents, settling at $0.5325/lb.
• Spot butter fell 3 cents midweek, closing at $2.4725/lb, while spot powder saw modest gains, rising 0.5 cents to finish at $1.2900/lb.
• Class IV milk contracts posted losses across the board, with no trading activity recorded on the 2025 contracts.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

Amanda Brill