CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• September corn futures closed at new contract lows on Wednesday as the selling pressure continues. The corn market failed to find any true footing as technical selling pressured the market even with some positive demand news and a strong move higher in crude oil prices due to geopolitical issues in the Middle East.
• The USDA announced a flash export sale this morning. Unknown destinations bought 4.1 mb (104,572 mt) for the 24/25 marketing year. While the export demand is needed, this was a small, routine sale that failed to move the market.
• On Thursday morning, the USDA will release the weekly export sales report. Expectations are for new sales to total 275,000 – 600,000 mt for old crop and 400,000 – 800,000 mt for new crop. Current new crop demand has been disappointing, with current sales on the books running at multi-year lows for this time frame.
• The USDA will release the August WASDE report on August 12, and they have announced that they will be looking at planted acre totals in this report. Talk in the market is a possible reduction of up to 1 million planted acres for corn. The possible decrease in acres could be outweighed by the market anticipating a potential better than trend yield for the current corn crop.
• Weather forecasts look very friendly for crop production into the middle of August, as temperatures are expected to trend below normal into the middle of the month. With that, overall precipitation across the majority of the corn belt is expected to run above normal for the same time period.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly higher after making new lows for the year earlier in the day. The trade was bear spread, with the front months only up slightly, while the November 2025 contract was up 7 cents. Today’s price action may have been due to funds taking profits on some of their short positions at the end of the month.
• Soybean products were mixed today with soybean meal closing lower while soybean oil was higher. The support for soybean oil likely came from higher crude oil prices that increased as a response to Israel’s assassination of a top political leader for Hamas in Iran. This move could further escalate the war in the Middle East.
• Brazilian consultancy Datagro, has estimated Brazil’s soybean acreage for 24/25 at 46.98 million hectares, or 116.09 million acres, which would be the 18th consecutive year that acreage was increased in the country if this is realized. Brazilian soybean production for 24/25 is estimated at 166.6 mmt which would be a 12% increase year over year.
• US weather is expected to be hotter than normal over the next 6 to 10 days across the southern and western areas of the country with rainfall amounts generally above normal. The 8 to 14-day forecast shows temperatures cooling off, while rainfall is expected to remain mostly above normal over the entire Midwest. As long as forecasts remain mostly favorable, funds will likely continue to be sellers.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• The wheat complex had a mixed close: Chicago ended the session with small gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis were mixed to lower. Chicago’s strength followed a weak start, likely supported by a sharply lower US Dollar Index and a strong close for Matif wheat after early weakness.
• The killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders has increased tensions in the Middle East, contributing to crude oil’s sharp rally today. This, along with higher equity markets, may offer some spillover support to the grains.
• Favorable Australian weather may result in a boost to their wheat crop. Some estimates are now as high as 30 mmt, which compares to the USDA’s current estimate of 29 mmt. For reference, last year’s crop totaled 26 mmt.
• The French wheat crop is reportedly set for a “catastrophic” harvest, with estimates of production declines ranging from 15% to 28%. This could result in a crop as small as 26 mmt, prompting French farmers to seek financial aid from the government. The loss of income is estimated to exceed 1.6 billion euros, or about $1.7 billion USD.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures ended the day red, with the second month contract of September being down 46 cents to close at $21.25 and October down 33 cents to close at $21.12.
• Spot cheese was down 2.3750 cents to close at $1.9450/lb. Both blocks and barrels closed red with blocks down 3.5 cents to close at $1.9150/lb and barrels down 1.25 cents to close at $1.9750/lb.
• Butter was the only spot market to close up, it gained 2.5 cents to close at $3.1275/lb.
• Spot powder closed down 0.25 cents at $1.2450/lb while whey remained unchanged at $0.62/lb.
• Class IV milk futures closed mixed, the second month contract September remained unchanged at $21.75, while October was up 2 cents to close at $21.84.
• Settlement prices for July milk came out as $19.79 for Class III and $21.31 for Class IV.

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Author

Amanda Brill