CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Moderate buying moved into the grain markets to end the week as corn futures finished with modest gains. Despite the buying strength, December corn futures still finished the week down 6 ¾ cents. Technically, corn futures held and closed above the psychological 400 barrier.
• Markets in general saw a high amount of volatility to end the week. Disappointing manufacturing data and a weak jobs number this morning triggered aggressive selling pressure in the equity markets, and position squaring or risk off trade in other markets. For corn futures, the negative trade action may have led to some short covering and profit taking during the session.
• The cash market trend may be a key for near-term corn prices. From August into September, producers may be looking to move old crop corn to make room for fall harvest. In some regions, cash corn basis levels have begun to slip as grain is moving into the pipeline.
• Private analyst group, StoneX release their producer survey for the month of August. Based on their survey, StoneX estimates a national corn yield of 182.3 bu/acre with national production at 15.207 billion bushels. Both estimates are above USDA forecasted targets.
• Weather forecasts look positive for crop production going into mid-August, as temperatures are expected to trend normal to below normal for much of the Corn Belt into the middle of the month, with overall precipitation expected to be mostly above normal for the same period.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher to end the week with funds likely taking profits ahead of the weekend. Soybeans made new lows for the year this week as weather forecasts continue to show good overall conditions. Soybean meal closed higher today, lending support to soybeans, while soybean oil ended lower with pressure from sharply lower crude oil.
• Despite today’s published soybean sale of 202,000 mt to China for 24/25, new crop soybean sales are at a four-year low, just ahead of the pace set in 2019. US exporters will need stronger growth in demand to help push prices higher. The recent sales to China have confirmed some of the recent rumors of Chinese purchases.
• For the week, September soybeans lost 24 cents to close at 1018 and November soybeans lost 21 ¾ cents to close at 1027 ¼. September soybean meal ended the week with a $0.60 gain to $333.70, and September soybean oil rallied 1.33 cents to 41.68 cents.
• As in corn, crop conditions in soybeans have been good with the most recent rating at 67% good to excellent for all soybeans. Yesterday, StoneX estimated the national soybean yield at 52.6 bpa with total production at 4.483 billion, both of which exceed current USDA projections.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted gains in all three categories today alongside higher corn and soybeans, despite sharp losses in the stock market following a weak jobs report this morning. There is some talk that investors were taking profits on the potential for a weaker US economy, including funds buying back short grain positions. Additionally, the US Dollar saw a significant drop today to its lowest level since March 21, which offered support to the grain markets.
• Argentina’s July rainfall was reported to be 30% below normal, and the dry weather is taking a toll on wheat. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop was rated only 31% good to excellent as of last week, an 8% drop from the previous week.
• According to the USDA, about 16% of spring wheat acres were experiencing drought as of July 30, a 1% increase from the week prior. While crop conditions are still favorable in North Dakota, conditions deteriorate moving west. A storm front may develop over the weekend and into early next week, potentially bringing scattered showers to the northern Plains.
• The province of Henan, China’s largest wheat producer, accounts for about a third of the country’s supply. The wheat harvest in that region is almost complete, but heat and wet weather have caused concerns about the quality of wheat in storage. Additionally, Vice Premier Liu Guozhong visited Henan after heavy rain and flooding, urging authorities to improve efforts to increase grain yields. China has consistently been working towards self-sufficiency in terms of national food security.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were in the red again on Friday led by both the September and October contracts which closed 56 and 44 cents lower respectively. The September contract ended the week losing a total of 93 cents to close at $20.45/cwt.
• Spot cheese fell another 3.375 cents today to close at $1.89/lb. Spot whey also dropped 1.50 cents to $0.61/lb after making a new high for the recent run up.
• Class IV futures saw light volume trading which kept prices steady on Friday. The 2024 Class IV average was unchanged at $20.83/cwt.
• Spot butter lost 2.25 cents but was still able to hold above the $3.10/lb level at $3.1050/lb. Spot powder finished unchanged on the day at $1.24/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg