CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• With more stability in the markets, sellers returned to the corn market during the day session, pressured by historically strong crop ratings, producer selling of old crop bushels, and weakness in the soybean complex.
• The USDA released weekly crop ratings yesterday afternoon. This year’s corn crop was rated 67% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. Historically, the rating is above average and bringing forecasts of above trendline yields, and the potential for increased supply is a limiting factor for the corn market.
• Weather forecasts are still non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures and rainfall looks more limited for the corn belt, but cooler temperatures should ease some plant stress.
• Producer selling may be increasing as old crop corn needs to be priced and basis contracts move closer to their pricing deadlines. With 7% of the corn crop in dent stage, southern harvest may be beginning soon, and bringing fresh supplies to the market.
• In the short term, the corn market is moving in a range bound pattern. December corn has support at 398 and resistance at 408. The market is consolidating within this range.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower wiping out all of yesterday’s gains as the equity markets corrected and trade shifted focus back to the crop conditions and upcoming weather. While crop ratings showed an improvement in soybean conditions, temperatures may start to increase in the 2-week forecast. Both soybean meal and oil were lower today as well.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress Report, showing the soybean crop’s good to excellent ratings improving 1 point to 68%. Iowa had the best rating at 76%, followed by Illinois, Missouri, and Nebraska. 59% of the crop is setting pods, compared to 44% last week, and 86% of the crop is blooming versus 77% last week.
• The 7-day forecast doesn’t hold anything too concerning, with normal temperatures and rain expected. A La Nina pattern had previously been expected to cause hot and dry conditions this summer, but so far that has not been the case and has affected grain prices negatively.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report showed that 261k tons of soybeans were inspected for export, which was on the lighter side. This compares to 409k tons last week and 291k tons a year ago. Total inspections for 23/24 are down 15% from the previous year. China made two purchases of new crop US soybeans last week, but exports will need to remain strong to be supportive.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted gains in all three classes, despite lower closes for corn and soybeans and a recovering US Dollar Index. Outside market influences potentially offered support – Matif wheat futures recovered from yesterday’s losses, and the US stock market is also higher after the major selloff yesterday.
• Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat harvest was 88% complete versus 85% last year and 86% on average. Additionally, 74% of the spring wheat crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from last week and well above the 41% rating a year ago. Furthermore, 97% of spring wheat is headed, versus 99% on average. Harvest at 6% complete, is a little behind last year’s 8% and the average of 10%.
• Good rainfall benefited Argentina’s central crop area this weekend. Better rains are also expected in Argentina’s wheat growing areas in the south and east in early September. Argentina needs the rain; according to the Rosario Exchange, they experienced the driest July in nearly 60 years.
• Argus has estimated that the French soft wheat crop yields will be 19% below average at 5.93 mt per hectare. Additionally, they projected French wheat production at 15.2 mmt – if accurate this would be a 41-year low.
• According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, the European Union’s 24/25 grain production is expected to decline relative to last year. A smaller planted area and lower yields are cited as the reasons for the decline. Wheat production in particular is expected at 127.4 mmt, which is below the USDA’s official estimate of 130 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were able stop the downhill slide by posting double-digit gains for all remaining 2024 contracts. The 2024 Class III average now sits at $18.57.
• Spot cheese was able to gain back 3 cents today to $1.9050 led by blocks which were up 6 cents while barrels went unchanged. Spot whey fell 1.25 cents to $0.5975/lb.
• Class IV futures were little moved on light trading volume. The 2024 Class IV average was unchanged at $20.81/cwt.
• Spot butter lost 0.25 cents but continues to hold a high value at $3.1025/lb. Spot powder finished unchanged on the day at $1.2325/lb.
• The Global Dairy Trade Auction improved 0.50% today.

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Author

Brandon Doherty