- Corn futures were choppy as the market weighed the support from the wheat market, but non-threatening weather forecasts, and strong selling in the soybean market limited any upside potential. December corn futures still managed to post a new low for this move and has traded negative 8 out of the last 9 sessions.
- Increased tensions in the Black Sea region over the weekend triggered buying strength in the wheat market, which provided spillover strength in corn futures, limiting downside potential.
- Good precipitation fell across a large portion of the Corn Belt over the weekend, which pressured the soybean market and limited the upside in corn. The extended forecasts are still not threatening as temperatures are looking to remain seasonal and precipitation average to above average across the Corn Belt.
- The USDA will release weekly crop ratings on Monday afternoon, expectations are for a 1% gain for the good/excellent category for corn to 56% G/E.
- Weekly export inspections were lackluster at 14.8 mb. This total is down 33% from last year’s levels with only 3 weeks remaining in the current marketing year.
- Soybeans ended the day lower, along with both soy products, after heavy rains fell throughout the Midwest this weekend with more forecast into the month. November beans seemed to find support at the 100-day moving average.
- The Crop Progress report will be released later today, and expectations are for the good to excellent rating to be steady to 1 point higher. Last week, that rating sat at 52%, but after the recent rains it is possible that the ratings will have improved even more.
- The prices of soy products have not been falling as much as the prices of soybeans, so crush incentives remain profitable which is good for domestic demand. There were 11 soybean deliveries against the expiring August soybean futures but none against soybean meal or oil.
- Corn didn’t decline by as much as soybeans percentage-wise today as soybeans are not as sensitive to the escalation of the Russian and Ukrainian war, and the rains received so far this month, along with those forecasts to come, are far more likely to help with soybean yields rather than some of the corn crop, which has already taken damage from the heat and drought.
- WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:
- All three US wheat futures classes, as well as Matif wheat futures, closed higher today on increased aggression in the Black Sea region. News outlets have reported that Ukraine bombed two key bridges used for supplying Russian troops, as well as a Russian oil tanker. Headlines also suggest that Russia may have launched some type of chemical projectile near the Zaporizhzhia Oblast region.
- Weekly wheat export inspections of 10.1 mb bring the 23/24 total inspections to 111 mb, which is down 15% from last year.
- A Turkish grain elevator suffered an explosion. However, this is believed to be an isolated incident caused by a grain dust explosion and not related to the war.
- The wheat market may also be getting some strength from talk that India’s crop could be below 100 mmt. Previous estimates were around 105 mmt, and there is talk that India may be working with Russia to import 9 mmt of wheat, an indication that they need supply. India is also said to be considering eliminating their wheat import tax.
- Flooding continues to be an issue in northeastern China, where much of their agricultural land is. Crop damage could be significant and may result in China needing to import more grain down the road.
- Buyers were active in the nearby Class III months to start the first full week of August. The September contract closed up 46 cents to move back under $18.00.
- The block/barrel average was up 1.25 cents today with blocks unchanged and barrels up 2.50 cents, dropping the block premium a bit to 16.50 cents.
- Class IV futures were mostly higher as well with the second month contract up 11 cents to $18.85 on no trades.
- After dropping 6 cents last week, spot butter was up 3 cents today to close at $2.65/lb on 14 loads traded. Spot powder was unchanged.
- Tomorrow, June dairy export numbers will be released. Total dairy exports in May were down 11% YoY.
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