CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• The corn market traded on both sides of unchanged today to settle in the upper end of the day’s range, with no new flash export sales reported or news from the Black Sea to move the market significantly in either direction. With the USDA’s August Supply and Demand report slated for Friday, the market continues to consolidate as traders begin to square positions ahead of its release.
• The USDA raised crop condition ratings 2% from last week to 57% good to excellent. While improvements were seen in Illinois and the Dakotas, states like Kansas, Minnesota, and Michigan remain below 50% g/e.
• DTN kicked off their digital yield tour on Monday and estimated the national corn yield at 177 bpa, close to the USDA’s July yield estimate of 177.5. The tour is set to conclude on Friday with details from a different region each day.
• China’s imports and exports for the month of July fell by 12.4% and 14.5% respectively versus last year, which was faster than expected. The slowdown may indicate a slowing economy and could lead to fewer ag imports.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans began the day lower but finished higher after trading below the 100-day moving average. Front month soybean meal ended the day lower with deferred months higher, while soybean oil was weak following a decline in palm oil.
• Lower prices earlier in the day were partially caused by weak economic data out of China that saw their July exports declining by the largest amount since February 2020. China has been an active buyer of US soybeans over the last week and another sale of 4.9 mb was announced yesterday for the 23/24 marketing year.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings improving after the recent rains. The good to excellent rating rose by 2 points, above the average trade guess, to 54%. Illinois showed the highest improvement with an increase of 12 points to 58% after the significant rainfall totals.
• 66% of the soybean crop is setting pods which is ahead of the 5-year average, but yield numbers are still up in the air. The USDA’s most recent estimate was 52 bpa and they will release a revised estimate in the report on Friday, while DTN’s Digital Yield Tour has pegged yields at 51 bpa.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• After a two-sided trade today, wheat managed a mostly positive close. Early weakness, which affected most commodities, likely came from Chinese trade data which showed that their economic activity may be slowing. Their imports and exports in July were lower than expected.
• The USDA rated the US spring wheat crop 41% good to excellent. This is a 1% drop from last week, and it is possible the USDA will lower production in Friday’s report due to recent declines in condition.
• Though it has been mentioned before, it is worth reiterating that India’s wheat crop could be below 100 mmt. With their domestic usage usually around 108 mmt, this would reinforce the talk that they are looking to import 9 mmt of Russian wheat. Despite recent price increases, Russian wheat is still the world’s cheapest.
• SovEcon increased their estimate of Russian wheat exports for 23/24 to 48.1 mmt, an all-time high, versus 47.2 mmt previously. There is some question about the logistics though, as this assumes Russia will have no problems exporting the wheat due to the war. In addition, IKAR increased the Russian 2023 wheat crop estimate to 88 mmt (vs 86.5 mmt previously).

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese, butter, powder, and whey were all unchanged on Tuesday, keeping the futures trade mostly flat.
• Volume was light in the futures market with a total of just 742 Class III 2023 contracts trading hands and just 1 class IV contract trading.
• Dairy exports for June were sluggish. On a year-over-year basis, cheese exports were down 19% and butter exports fell 65%.
• September Class IV was bid 15c higher and reclaimed the $19.00 handle with a $19.00 even close. There was 1 contract traded.
• The market will watch for Friday’s Supply and Demand report to see if the USDA has shifted any price projection or milk production forecasts for the next year.

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Author

Brandon Doherty