CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• For the 4^th consecutive session, corn prices bleed lower pushed by farmer selling, and weather forecasts that remain overall non-threatening. Dec corn pushed to new lows and was down 8 ¼ cents on the week.
• Producer selling is limiting the market upside as grain is moving into the system. September basis contracts and producers moving old crop supplies keep selling pressure intact. The potential for a large harvest only adds some urgency to old crop corn movement.
• Weather forecasts remain non-threatening for corn production. Long-range forecasts into mid-August are targeting cooler than normal temperatures. Rainfall looks more limited for the near term, but both warmer temperatures and rainfall chances look to increase going into the back half of August.
• On Monday, the USDA will release the August Crop Production report. With the higher-than-average crop ratings, expectations for corn yield are to be over 182 bushels/acre, up from trendline of 181 bushels/acres from previous reports. There are some possible adjustments to planted and harvested acres for this report, but the supply picture will still be a limiting factor going forward.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower for the fourth consecutive day despite a multitude of export sales reported this morning. Trade is primarily focused on the good weather forecast and the USDA report on Monday that many analysts are expecting to be bearish. Soybean meal led the complex lower today, but soybean oil was higher along with higher crude and palm oil.
• This morning, the USDA reported multiple export sales. They reported that 132,000 mt of soybeans were sold to China for 24/25, 100,000 mt of soybean meal were sold to Colombia, and 212,000 mt of soybeans were received for delivery to unknown destinations. These sales were encouraging but will need to continue to make a significant difference in prices.
• Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average trade estimate for 24/25 carryout is 472 mb, which is up 37 mb from July.
• In Argentina, workers at a soybean crush plant have extended their strike to a third day as a result of insufficient wages. Shipments have been delayed for the biggest soybean meal and oil exporter just as harvest is wrapping up.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed higher, led by Chicago futures. Support may be coming from a number of recent large global tenders, as well as escalation between Ukraine and Russia, factoring some war premium back into the market.
• The average pre-report estimate for US all wheat production comes in at 2.106 bb. This compares with 2.008 bb in the July report and to 1.812 bb last year. US ending stocks are predicted to remain unchanged for 23/24 at 702 mb, and for 24/25 are projected at 860 mb vs 856 mb in July. In addition, global 23/24 wheat carryout is expected to remain unchanged at 261.0 mmt, while 24/25 carryout is expected to slightly increase from 257.2 mmt to 257.3 mmt.
• The French agriculture ministry lowered their estimate of the nation’s wheat production by 3.35 mmt to 26.3 mmt. If accurate, that would be down 25% from last year and also the smallest crop in almost 40 years. Additionally, their harvest is said to be 88% finished.
• IKAR reportedly increased their estimate of Russian grain production by 1.5 mmt to 129.5 mmt. This compares to the Russian ag ministry’s 132 mmt estimate. For wheat in particular, IKAR increased the production forecast by 0.6 mmt to 83.8 mmt. For reference, the USDA is at 83.0 mmt.
• According to their ag ministry, Ukraine’s harvest has reaped 20.94 mmt of wheat on 97% of the planted area. This exceeds the USDA estimate of 19.5 mmt. The ministry did not offer an average yield for the wheat harvest, but they reported that 27.3 mmt of other grains and 3.3 mmt of oilseeds were harvested as of August 9.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were able to rebound slightly from yesterday’s losses. October futures were able to recoup the 8 cents lost on Thursday to close out the week at $21.16.
• Spot cheese finished out the week strong, adding another 2.75 cents to close at $1.98125/lb. Spot whey continues to retrace dropping 4.75 cents on the week to close at $0.5625/lb
• Class IV milk futures were little moved on light volume trading. The August contract did tack on 3 cents to go home at $21.60.
• Spot butter went unchanged on Friday at $3.0975/lb, while powder continues to take a dip lower losing 1.75 cents to close at $1.20/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty