CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw some position squaring and selling pressure from the soybean and wheat market to close marginally lower on Tuesday. September corn lost 1 ½ cents to 436 ¾, and December corn lost 1 ¼ cents to 460 ½.
• December corn futures continue to test and hold a shelf price around the 457-460 area. This is the area where selling pressure seems to be limited during the trading session. With the USDA report on Wednesday, a price break through this area could trigger technical selling and long liquidation.
• The USDA will release the August Crop Production report on Wednesday. Expectations for corn yield are to be slightly below trend at 182.4 bu/a. This would put total production just below 16 billion bushels. In addition, the FSA will be releasing the August Crop Acreage report on Wednesday, which could provide possible acre adjustments to the Crop Production report.
• USDA released weekly crop ratings on Monday afternoon. For the week ending August 9, the corn crop stabilized and remained unchanged at 61% good to excellent, still trending down 3% from the 5-year average.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower as rains continue to fall and traders anticipate tomorrow’s WASDE report. November soybeans closed below the 100-day moving average for the first time since July 2, which could be considered a technical break.
• September soybeans lost 10-1/4 cents to $11.51-1/2 while November soybeans lost 10-3/4 cents to $11.68-3/4. September soybean meal lost $0.50 to $305.00 and September soybean oil lost 0.96 cents to 68.57 cents despite gains in crude oil. September crude oil is up $0.95 a barrel to $83.11 after a cargo ship from Panama was fired on in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see the soybean yield unchanged at 53.0 bpa but production slightly higher at 4,478 bb. 25/26 ending stocks are projected to fall by 7 mb to 323 mb while 26/27 ending stocks are expected to fall by 4 mb to 306 mb. World ending stocks for 26/26 are expected to be steady to slightly higher.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report saw good to excellent ratings for soybeans fall by 1 point from last week to 62%, compared to 68% last year and the 5-year average of 62%. 93% of the crop is blooming and 74% is setting pods.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat ended the day firmly lower, struggling to post gains despite continued issues across the Black Sea. Traders repositioned ahead of tomorrow’s USDA Supply and Demand Report, which is expected to provide updated U.S. and global supply estimates. December Chicago wheat is down 11-1/4 cents at 6.48, while December Kansas City wheat is down 14-1/4 cents at 7.17.
• Tomorrow’s USDA supply and demand report is expected to show U.S. ending stocks at 715 million bushels, according to Reuters estimates, down from 722 million in July. World ending stocks are also expected to decline by at least 1 million tons from last month. All wheat, winter wheat, HRW, and spring wheat production estimates are expected to come in slightly below July’s estimates.
• SovEcon lowered its estimate for Russian wheat exports in August to 3.0–3.4 million tons, the lowest for the month in 10 years, down from 4.5 million tons a year ago and the five-year average of 5.0 million. IKAR also cut its full-season Russian export estimate to 44.5 million tons from 45 million last month, while production was lowered to 90 million tons from 90.5 million.
• U.S. harvest progress reached 91% complete, right in line with the average. HRS conditions fell 4% to 51% good to excellent, compared to 49% a year ago. The decline was expected following a sharp increase in HRS acres experiencing drought conditions over the past two weeks.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The Class III trade turned red on Tuesday as both the block and barrel cheese trade held steady on no loads traded.
• September Class III fell 26c while October lost 30c as the choppy trade continues. The milk trade lacks direction at the moment.
• Class IV was mixed with spot butter falling 2.75c and spot powder gaining 2c to $1.60/lb.
• Whey picked up another half cent to $0.6975/lb. Whey strength continues to be a constant.
• News should remain quiet this week for dairy without a major report. Expect volatility in the feed market tomorrow as the USDA will release a Supply and Demand report.

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Author

John Heinberg