CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• A surprise acre adjustment and a larger than expected yield adjustment on the August crop production report pressured corn futures to new contract lows as the market experienced sharp losses. Only the strength in the soybean market likely supported the corn market on the session.
• The USDA increased corn planted acreage by 2.1 million acres to 90.7 million on the crop production report for August. In addition, raised the projected yield well above expectations to 188.8 bu/acre for this year’s corn crop. The surge in acres and yield projected for this year’s U.S. corn crop brought production to 16.742 BB, up 1.875 BB from last year as the U.S. is forecasted for a record crop on record acreage.
• The total of 16.742 BB is a large supply. The USDA made strong demand adjustments totaling 545 mb for exports, feed usage, and ethanol usage to cut into that corn supply, but new crop carryout is projected at 2.117 BB, well over market expectations.
• The combination of corn supply and demand puts the stocks-to-use ratio at 13.3% or approximately 48.5 days of available supply. This is a heavy ratio, and the largest in U.S. corn since 2018-19 marketing year.
• Export demand remains strong as Mexico was a purchaser of corn on a flash sale overnight. Mexico added 315,488 MT (12.42 mb) of corn split between this year and next marketing year. 20,830 MT for 2024-25, and 294,658 MT (11.6 MB) for 2025-26. U.S. corn will stay very competitive in the global export market well into the end of the year at these price levels.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher fueled by a bullish WASDE report. The November contract closed above all major moving averages for the first time in nearly a month and traded within a 41-cent range for the day. Both soybean meal and oil were higher, but not significantly.
• Highlights from today’s report included an increase in estimated yield to 53.6 bpa. This was above the average trade guess of 53 bpa and was above last month’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. However, both production and ending stocks were lowered due to a surprise revision lower in planted acreage. Ending stocks for 25/26 are now at just 290 mb, below the estimate of 360 mb. World ending stocks were lowered slightly for 25/26.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall one point to 68% good to excellent which is the same rating seen a year ago at this time. 91% of the crop is blooming and 71% is setting pods, both in line with last year’s progress.
• Yesterday’s export inspections came in better than expected today with soybean inspections totaling 19 mb for the week ending August 7. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.77 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year at this time. China has remained absent from purchasing.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across all three classes today, with Chicago futures posting new contract lows. Market attention was focused on the monthly WASDE report, which leaned bearish for winter wheat but offered slight support for spring wheat. Overall, the report was relatively neutral for the wheat complex. However, weakness in the corn market likely dragged wheat lower as a follower.
• On today’s report, the USDA lowered 25/26 wheat production by 2 mb from last month, to 1.927 bb. Winter wheat production increased 10 mb to 1.355 bb, which was more than expected, whereas spring wheat production fell 19 mb to 485 mb. U.S. exports were also raised by 25 mb.
• U.S. wheat ending stocks for 24/25 were unchanged at 851 mb, but for 25/26 they were cut by 21 mb to 869 mb. Globally, 24/25 carryout declined by 0.9 mmt to 262.7 mmt, and for 25/26 it was dropped buy 1.4 mmt to 260.1 mmt.
• Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that winter wheat harvested advanced 4% to 90% complete. Additionally, spring wheat conditions improved 1% to 49% good to excellent and 16% of that crop is harvested, up from 5% last week.
• According to data from Rosstat, Russia’s 2025 planted area decreased by 1.1%, and grain areas in particular fell by 5.1%. Wheat areas specifically declined from 16.134 million hectares to 15.815 million hectares.
• Data from Cepea indicates that Brazilian wheat imports are on the rise, while domestic prices are falling. The amount accumulated in the past 12 months is said to be about 20% above the previous 12 months. In addition, Secex reports that Brazil imported 616,910 mt of wheat in July, up 26.7% from their June imports.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• The September 2025 through March 2026 Class IV futures all faced losses of 24 to 38 cents. The second month contract settled at $18.22 today.
• Spot butter fell another 3.50 cents today on top of Monday’s 1.50 cent loss. Spot powder is down 1.50 cents through two days to $1.25/lb.
• Class III futures were mostly green, but did come off of their morning highs. September finished the day at $18.95.
• Spot cheese improved another 4 cents to move to $1.87/lb, a two-month high. Spot whey was unchanged.

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Author

Amanda Brill