CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures finished mixed to lower in the session as prices consolidated at recent lows. Weaknesses in other grains, export sales cancellations, and the prospects of large supplies limit the upside in the corn market.
• The USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning, and it brought a mixed bag of information. Sales for the 2024-25 marketing year hit a market year low with net reductions of 88,700 MT (3.5 mb). While a few new sales occurred, they were offset by 601,200 MT (23.7 mb) of reductions. The marketing year ends at the end of the month, what can’t get shipped is either canceled or rolled to 2025-26. New crop sales remain strong with sales of 2.048 MMT (80.7 mb).
• USDA announced flash exports sales of corn on Thursday morning. South Korea to purchase 136,000MT and Spain added 132,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year. U.S. corn export prices will remain competitive moving into the fall months as the market works through a potential record supply of corn.
• The Brazil Ag agency, CONAB raise their expectations for the Brazil corn crop by 5 MMT on Thursday morning to 137 MMT crop (5.398 BB), which is a record production. USDA forecast the Brazil crop at 132 MMT on Tuesday WASDE report.
• Corn prices will likely stay pressured, or rallies limited as both the U.S. and Brazil are producing record corn crops. The large volume of supply in the global corn market will take time to digest as the corn market is currently in a supply driven bear market and demand will be the key.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply lower following three days of large gains as weakness in soybean oil weighed on the complex along with concerns over export demand and China as a trade partner. Despite the losses, November futures closed above all major moving averages. Soybean meal ended the day lower as well.
• Export sales were mixed for soybeans with a net cancellation of 13.9 million bushels for 24/25 and an increase of 41.6 mb for 25/26. New crop sales were better than expected. Top buyers were the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and Japan. Last week’s export shipments of 19.6 mb were below the 26.9 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
• Weather forecasts throughout the rest of the month call for warm summer temperatures and enough moisture to get through pod fill. It is possible that the USDA increases yield again in the September report, but it is also possible that export demand is lowered which could see the ending stocks number increase.
• In Brazil, soybean production is expected to rise by nearly 1 mmt to 170.5 mmt because of better than expected yields. The USDA has not yet increased production estimates for Brazil.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across the board. Today’s PPI report showed higher than expected inflation, which led to a jump in the U.S. Dollar, which ultimately weighed on wheat values. Additionally, a recent lack of fresh friendly news has made it difficult for wheat to rally.
• The USDA reported an increase of 26.6 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 12.5 mb, which falls under the 17.4 mb pace needed per week to reach their 25/26 export goal of 875 mb. However, total 25/26 sales commitments have reached 404 mb which is up 24% from last year.
• In an update from CONAB, they kept their Brazilian wheat production estimate unchanged at 7.81 mmt. This is slightly above the USDA’s guess of 7.5 mmt. Meanwhile, the Rosario Grain Exchange has said that good rains are benefiting Argentina’s wheat crop, and their production estimate has been kept steady at 20 mmt.
• After recent rains, spring wheat areas in drought as of August 12 have fallen to just 16% compared with 35% the week before. While the moisture may benefit later planted crops, it may also slow HRS harvest and potentially cause quality concerns. In addition, winter wheat areas in drought declined 1% to 29% over the same time period.
• According to DRV, a German ag co-op group, Germany’s 2025 grain harvest is now estimated at 43 mmt, up from 41.7 mmt previously. This would be a 10% jump above the 2024 crop, if accurate. Wheat production specifically is now seen at 22.4 mmt, compared with 21.6 mmt before.
• The finance and agriculture ministries in China have allocated 1.1 billion yuan (the equivalent of over $153 million USD) in disaster relief funds. The goal is to stabilize grain production in major growing regions.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures faced hefty losses today with September trading limit down at one point, but closing down 54 cents at $18.14.
• Spot cheese cracked the uptrend in dramatic fashion today as blocks fell 10.25 cents and barrels lost 3.50 cents, bringing the average to $1.80125/lb.
• Class IV action was pretty quiet today with small gains in November and December 2025 while the Q2 2026 contracts faced selling pressure.
• Spot butter took a breather from its recent losing streak today, closing unchanged on no loads traded. Spot powder lost a half cent.

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Author

John Heinberg