CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn closed the week strong, supported by aggressive buying in wheat and a continued strong demand outlook. September corn gained 11 cents to 459, while December added 11¼ cents to 483¼. For the week, December corn gained 21¼ cents.
• The lack of a cease-fire agreement between Russia and Ukraine sent wheat futures sharply higher, with SRW gaining more than 3% and HRW rising over 4%. The rally spilled into corn and added headline risk tied to further developments in the Black Sea.
• Strong recent old-crop sales have pushed total U.S. corn export commitments to 3.445 BB, up 24% from last year. Commitments remain ahead of USDA’s updated export forecast.
• Rainfall will remain active across much of the Corn Belt through the weekend before forecasts turn drier during the second half of August. The market will watch for any disease pressure following the recent wet pattern.
• Pro Farmer’s widely followed Crop Tour begins Monday. Traders will be watching closely for confirmation—or a challenge—to USDA’s recent reduction in the national corn yield estimate.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher alongside the broader grain complex, with wheat providing leadership. Higher crude oil and continued new-crop soybean sales to China also added support. However, USDA’s August report was less supportive for soybeans than corn, as higher acreage pushed ending stocks higher, leaving the market vulnerable if crop conditions continue to improve.
• September soybeans gained 11-3/4 cents to 1177-3/4 while November gained 10-1/4 cents to 1192-1/2. November soybeans may be forming a head and shoulders, but there is significant support at the 100-day moving average around $11.70. September soybean meal gained $2.80 to $310.20, while September soybean oil gained 0.65 cents to 69.44 cents. September crude oil is up $1.20 to $82.45.
• Private exporters reported a sale of 136,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. China has now reportedly fulfilled around 17% of its 25 mmt commitment, with the total potentially higher if sales to unknown destinations are ultimately shipped to China.
• For the week, September soybeans gained 18-3/4 cents while November soybeans gained 16-1/4 cents. September soybean meal gained $1.30, and September soybean oil gained 1.20 cents. Monday’s Crop Progress report is expected to show a slight improvement in crop conditions.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed sharply higher led by the HRW class. Yesterday’s rumors of a potential peace agreement have been brushed aside as Ukraine reportedly struck a key Russian port in the Baltic Sea. Russia also stated that they have no reason to halt their attacks, and also plans not to return to the safe export corridor like they had a few years ago. In the September contract, Chicago gained 22 cents to 674-3/4, Kansas City rallied 33-3/4 cents to 754-1/4, and MIAX was up 9 cents at 678-1/4.
• The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has lowered their estimate of Western Australia’s wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 9.0 mmt. This is said to be due to dry conditions as well as recent cold fronts that have slowed development of the crop. Additionally, the growing El Niño weather pattern could cause further drought issues down the road.
• Argentine wheat planting is 99.6% complete as of August 13, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The planted area estimate remains unchanged at 6.5 million hectares.
• CONAB has reduced their estimate of Brazil’s 2026 wheat crop production to 5.8 mmt. This largely reflects a 20.4% drop in planted area. Furthermore, they anticipate Brazilian wheat imports in the 26/27 season will reach 7.103 mmt. Not only would this be 20% above last year, but it would also be the largest import volume in 20 years.
• Cooler and drier conditions have dominated the Canadian Prairies over the past week. Below-normal temperatures are expected over the next five days before warmer and continued dry conditions develop through the extended forecast, potentially increasing stress on the spring wheat crop.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were all lower for remaining 2026 contracts except for September, which saw an improvement of 10 cents to close at $17.43.
• Spot cheese gave back half a cent to close out the week at $1.58125/lb. Whey prices added 2 pennies to close at $0.69/lb.
• Class IV milk futures were slightly lower aside from the September contract which tacked on 3 cents to go home at $18.90.
• Spot butter lost more than what was gained on Thursday to end the week at $1.46/lb. Powder prices continue to climb, jumping 3.50 cents to $1.7450/lb.

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Author

John Heinberg