TFM Daily Market Summary 08-18-2023


  • Private exporters reported sales of 112,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
  • The nearby weather forecast looks hot and dry for much of the Midwest with triple-digit temperatures expected in many areas. While this should not impact corn as much as soybeans at this point in the year, late planted corn could be stressed.
  • Next week the Pro Farmer tour will begin and will offer yield estimates. Historically during the week of this tour, corn futures lose an average of 10 cents (with soybeans losing 25). The yields found generally also come in below the final USDA yields.
  • Worsening economic issues in China may have been the anchor on the grain markets this week, but the price trend appears to be turning higher. Both the RSI and stochastics show momentum starting to trend upward.
  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s 22/23 corn production estimate is unchanged at 34 million tons. Additionally, 90% of the crop is harvested.


  • Soybeans ended the day higher along with both soybean meal and oil as forecasts project hot and dry conditions over at least the next seven days which may affect pod fill and yield. Most of the Midwest is expected to be in the 90’s with Des Moines forecast to hit 101 on Tuesday.
  • With this string of hot and dry temperatures, the September WASDE report could show another reduction in yields. That is also the report where acres could be adjusted higher, which would affect the carryout.
  • Technically, November soybeans appear to have put a bottom in and are hugging the 50-day moving average which is moving higher. There is a gap on the chart at 13.79 which may be a target.
  • There were no reported export sales today following yesterday’s export sales report showing 51.7 mb of old crop sales for the previous week. Total new crop soybean sales are currently at 389 million bushels which is well behind last year’s 671 mb at this time, but last year the US didn’t have a massive 5.73 bb Brazilian crop to compete against.


  • The first vessel that traveled through Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor, the “Joseph Schulte”, has safely reached Bulgarian waters. Bulgaria is a NATO nation, and this is an indication that more exports could be expected via this route.
  • According to the National Weather Service, there is a 99% chance that the El Nino weather pattern will continue through fall and a 95% chance that it will last into next year. It is expected to strengthen as we approach winter in the northern Hemisphere.
  • The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia said that grain yields will be 1 mmt lower in just the last few weeks, with more potential declines if there isn’t enough rain. Wheat production in particular is said to unlikely be over 10 mmt.
  • India is reportedly in confidential talks with Russia regarding a purchase of 9 mmt of wheat. While this news has been circulating the past few weeks, until now it was just rumors. If the deal goes through it would be the largest grain deal on record between the two nations.


  • Friday’s jump in milk prices brought the 2nd month contract for Class III from red to black on the week, up 56 cents overall.
  • Class IV did not jump like its counterpart on Friday, however, the 2nd month contract finished 24 cents higher on the week, while the Q4 avg rose 13 cents.
  • Volume was mixed in the spot trade with cheese sellers waiting out better offers and only moving 8 loads, while butter sellers moved 98 loads.
  • Culling within the dairy sector remains above or near 10-year highs since the beginning of June, up 5.4% YoY for the week ending 08/05.
  • GDT auction event from Tuesday saw the index fall 7.4%, down to levels not seen since late 2018.


Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Brandon Doherty

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