CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Led by weakness in the wheat market, September corn futures pushed the corn market lower on the session. September corn posted a new contract low, while December corn finished with a new contract low close. December corn closed the week down 1 ½ cents finishing lower on the week for the fourth consecutive week.
• Farmer selling old crop corn supplies or pricing basis contracts pressured the front-end September futures. With First Notice Day next Friday, producers will need to decide on pricing basis contracts early next week, which could provide additional selling pressure in the market.
• Logistics in moving corn bushels to the Gulf of Mexico ports may become a concern soon as Mississippi River levels are dropping and could be at a stage to put restrictions on barge traffic by Early September.
• Pro Farmer finished its annual crop tour on Thursday and released its final crop production forecasts this afternoon. Using tour results and other factors, Pro Farmer sees the 2024 corn yield at 181.1 bpa. down 1.1% from the August USDA forecasts. This puts production at 14.979 billion bushels for the crop year. Last year Pro Farmer had the corn yield at 177.3 bpa. They left harvested acres unchanged on their projections.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans closed higher on the day, with help from sharply higher soybean oil, after a week of mixed trading, that ultimately finished up for the week. Export activity provided support throughout the week, while improved weather forecasts and lower pod counts from the Pro Farmer crop tour put pressure on prices. Soybean meal also ended the day higher.
• For the week, September soybeans gained 13 ¼ to end at 952 and November soybeans gained 16 cents to end at 973. September soybean meal gained $2.90 to end at $306.30 while September soybean oil gained 1.52 cents to close at 41.47 cents. Since Monday, funds are estimated to have bought back 4,000 contracts of soybeans.
• The Pro Farmer crop tour found solid soybean yield potential, with pod counts in Iowa at 1,312.3 pods in a 3 by 3-foot square, which compares to the 3-year average of 1,194.2. In Minnesota, counts of 1,036.6 pods were found, compared to the 3-year average of 1,037.7. Estimates for the tour’s final soybean yield is 54.9 bpa, which if realized would be up from the USDA’s estimate of 53.2 bpa.
• Today the USDA reported another round of private soybean export sales totaling 120,000 metric tons for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year.
• Domestic demand has been stout with crush margins reportedly ranging from $2.10 to $2.60 per bushel in the Corn Belt which has given crushers a large incentive to buy cash soybeans. This should pair with the uptick in export demand recently, but trade is more focused on the large crop that will likely be harvested this fall.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted double-digit losses in both Kansas City and Minneapolis futures, while Chicago fared a little better. This occurred despite another significant drop in the US Dollar Index today, which reached its lowest level since late July 2023 after comments by the Fed chairman that “the time has come” to begin reducing interest rates. September Matif wheat futures also hit a new contract low today, offering no support to the US market.
• Spring wheat futures faced the most pressure in the wheat complex today, likely due to harvest pressures, with yields in both Minnesota and North Dakota anticipated to be very good so far. Additionally, funds are believed to be adding to their short wheat positions, contributing to today’s weakness.
• Recent rains in Argentina should improve their wheat crop, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, particularly in the southern and central growing regions. However, drier weather and frost concerns could affect crops in the northwestern regions. Argentina planted 15.6 million acres of wheat for the 24/25 season, with harvest expected to begin in November.
• The Canadian government reportedly intervened in the railway strike by forcing arbitration. Despite this development, wheat prices declined today, indicating that the market was not significantly concerned about potential disruptions to grain transportation caused by the strike.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were pressured again early on before rebounding heading into the close. October and November contracts were down 17-26 cents before reversing higher.
• Spot cheese regressed for a second straight day by 8.125 cents to close at $2.06875/lb. This move was led by barrels which lost 12.25 cents while blocks closed 4 cents lower.
• Class IV futures for 2024 were lackluster but there was aggressive buying out into 2025 contracts. May ’25 futures led the way by improving 54 cents to close at $21.05.
• Spot butter dipped 2 cents on the day to close at $3.13/lb. Powder futures tacked on 0.25 cents to close at $1.2825 which is its highest level since January.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg