CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures closed lower on Wednesday as September lost 5 cents to $3.82-1/2 and December fell 3-1/2 cents to $4.06. With First Notice Day looming Friday, old-crop pricing and long liquidation continue to weigh on the market. Charts look weak, leaving room for additional downside.
• September pressure persists. Open interest remains above 80,000 contracts, and producers holding basis contracts will need to make pricing decisions this week, adding volatility to the nearby contract.
• The weekly ethanol report saw production at 2,000 barrels per day, which compares to the average trade guess of 1,073 bpd and last week’s figure at 1,072 bpd. Stocks were 100,000 barrels lower and were down from 22.688 million bbl.
• Export demand has been quiet over the last week. USDA has not reported a flash sale since Aug. 22 as U.S. and Brazilian prices converge. Trade chatter suggests Taiwan may have booked corn out of the PNW, though only sales over 100,000 MT would trigger USDA reporting.
• Dry and cool weather seems to be the dominant theme in the near-term for U.S. weather. Parts of the Eastern Corn Belt are observing their driest August in over 100 years. Talk of “Flash Drought” may start hitting the market as the dryness may push the maturity speed on the corn crop.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower and traded on either side of unchanged throughout the day. September closed down 1-1/2 cents at $10.27-1/4 and November fell 2 cents to $10.47-1/2. October soybean meal slid $6.20 to $284.30, while October soybean oil eased 0.31 cents to 52.72 cents. With first notice day Friday, many traders are exiting September longs and rolling into deferred contracts.
• Trade optimism remains in focus. China confirmed it will send a top negotiator to Washington to meet U.S. officials and business leaders this week, though not in a formal negotiating session. Beijing continues to link major purchases — including soybeans and Boeing planes — to the removal of tariffs.
• The USDA projected the national soybean yield at 53.5 bpa while Pro Farmer estimated it at 53.0 bpa, and many traders think the actual number will be closer to 53.0. Weather has been drier than usual for August, but soil moisture levels were good enough coming into the month to maintain crop conditions.
• The bearish story for soybeans is the possibility that a trade deal with China does not get achieved, and in this case, the USDA would need to revise export estimates lower which would in turn raise the carryout number past the last estimate of 350 mb for 25/26.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat led the way to the downside today with September Chicago posting a 7-1/4 cent loss to 502-1/4, while September Kansas City was down 7-1/2 to 485-1/2. September MIAX took the biggest hit, closing down 15-1/4 cents to 551. Pressure likely stemmed from anticipation that tomorrow, Statistics Canada’s updated estimates will show increased wheat production; the average pre-report estimate for all wheat production comes in at 35.9 mmt versus 34.4 mmt August last year.
• The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics (ABARE) is anticipated to release an updated wheat production forecast for their nation next week. It is expected to be well above the June estimate of 30.6 mmt, with many private analysts thinking the harvest could be closer to last year’s 34.1 mmt crop.
• The Indian government has reportedly reduced the limit of wheat stockpiles for traders and wholesalers from 3,000 mt to 2,000 mt. Retailers also saw a reduced requirement from 10 mt to 8 mt, and these restrictions will be in place until the end of March 2026.
• European Union soft wheat exports for the 25/26 season are down 48% year on year. Since the season began on July 1, only 2.18 mmt of wheat has been exported, compared with 4.15 mmt a year ago. The top importer was Saudi Arabia, followed by Morocco and Nigeria.
• Ukraine’s largest farming union, UAC, has stated that their country’s 2025 wheat production estimate has a maximum of 21.8 mmt. This would be a decrease from the 2024 crop that totaled 22.7 mmt. Currently, Ukraine’s economy ministry is estimating the output at 21 mmt, but the UAC said this does not account for production from small farmers.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk moved lower midweek, with the September contract closing down 42 cents at $18.21.
• Spot cheese slipped back below the $1.80/lb mark, losing 3.25 cents to close at $1.7725/lb. Spot whey also moved lower, falling 2 cents to settle at $0.550/lb.
• Spot butter continued its decline, dropping an additional 13.5 cents to close at $2.0500/lb. Meanwhile, spot powder was the only market to post gains, inching up 0.25 cents to close at $1.2550/lb.
• Class IV milk also moved lower in today’s trade, with the September contract falling 37 cents to close at $17.31.

Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg