TFM Daily Market Summary 08-28-2023


  • Corn futures followed the strength in soybean markets, adding some weather premium to close 7-8 cents higher. Dec corn futures may be looking to challenge the $5.00 level as the next level of resistance.
  • Overall, weather forecasts going into September are remaining warmer and drier than normal, which may bring the crop to maturity faster than anticipated. The market is pricing in some reduced potential yield from current levels.
  • Weekly export inspections were above expectations on Monday. Last week, exporters shipped 597,000 MT of corn, slightly above expectations. Year to date, weekly export inspections are still 33% behind last year with the market year ending on August 31.
  • Demand is still a question, but the USDA reported routine corn sales continuing to Mexico. Mexico purchased 130,000MT of US corn on a flash sale for the 2023-24 marketing year.
  • Pro Farmer released its projected national yield for the year at 172.0 bu/acre, currently under the USDA and last year’s levels. With the weather forecast, the market is likely adding some premium in case USDA projections for production is high. The next USDA crop production report will be released on September 12.


  • Soybeans closed higher today along with both soybean meal and oil. Soybeans gapped higher overnight as weekend forecasts came out showing more heat and dryness that is expected to last for at least the next 7 days.
  • US exports have been improving as the US is becoming more competitive with Brazilian soybean prices as their basis picks up. A flash sale was reported this morning of 296,000 metric tons for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year. Exports should continue to improve as Brazil turns its focus to corn planting.
  • Soybean export inspections came in as expected at 11.8 mb for the week ending Thursday, August 24, and total inspections for 22/23 are now at 1.906 bb which is down 8% from the previous year. Inspections are running on par with USDA expectations.
  • Pro Farmer’s crop tour ended last week with an average national yield guess of 49.7 bpa, which has added to support, but the USDA’s current guess is higher at 50.9 bpa. The USDA will revise this number in the September WASDE, but there is also a chance that they adjust acreage as well.


  • The USDA reported 390k mt of wheat were inspected for export as of August 24. While this is up from the previous week’s number of 311k mt, and above the upper end of expectations, the year-to-date total is down 21% from last year.
  • A second ship that has left Ukraine through the Black Sea in Ukraine’s new humanitarian corridor safely reached Romania despite Russia backing out of the grain deal.
  • There are reports that Vladimir Putin is set to meet with Turkish President Erdogan, possibly next week, to discuss the Black Sea export corridor deal.
  • There is dryness in both Argentina and Australia that could impact wheat yields. India is also having weather issues and is considering abolishing its import tax on wheat to help millers buy cheaper grain to help rein in rising domestic prices.


  • On Monday, spot cheese, butter, and powder all closed unchanged on light volume. Whey pushed higher once again though, adding a half cent to $0.2850/lb.
  • The spot cheese market still holds near $1.90/lb and the fact that the 50c rally off the lows hasn’t been met with aggressive selling is a good sign.
  • This should be a quiet week for the dairy trade. There are no expected monthly reports and there is no Global Dairy Trade auction either.
  • A short term bounce in the corn and soybean meal market may add support to the dairy trade this week.
  • At this time, butter and cheese are in short up trends, whey is mixed, and powder holds in a downtrend.


Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


Amanda Brill

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