The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Monday, September 1, in Observance of Labor Day

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn markets ended the week on a strong note, pushing to new weekly highs with solid gains across the board. The rally was fueled by a bullish export report and growing sentiment that the USDA’s production and yield estimates for the 2025 season may have already peaked. The front-month September contract surged more than 12 cents on the day, closing above the 50-day moving average resistance, while all deferred contracts posted gains of over 9 cents.
• While no new flash sales were announced this morning, recent price action suggests that fresh demand may be emerging in the market.
• Brazil announced the development of 21 active corn-based ethanol projects, which could increase the country’s corn production by 50% by 2027. Of the 21 projects, 12 are currently in various stages of construction, while the remaining 9 are still in the planning phase. If all projects reach operational status, they are expected to require an additional 14 million metric tons (MMT) of corn to produce approximately 8.2 billion liters of ethanol.
• Weather conditions remain favorable across much of the U.S. as harvest approaches, with extended forecasts continuing to support crop development. Currently, only 5% of U.S. corn acreage is experiencing drought conditions, down from 8% at the same time last year. Overall, the corn crop looks promising; however, reports of tar spot and southern rush emerging in parts of the Midwest are raising some early concerns.
• LSEG has raised its 2024/25 Brazil corn production estimate to 137.4 million metric tons, a 4% increase from its previous forecast, citing expectations for a larger planted area. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn harvest is nearing completion, with progress reported at approximately 97%.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher with September up 8-1/2 cents to $10.36-3/4 while November was up 6-1/2 cents at $10.54-1/2. October soybean meal was up by $0.50 to $283.40 and October soybean oil was down by 0.25 cents to 51.70 cents. Funds were buyers across the grain complex heading into the weekend.
• Drought conditions have expanded throughout the southern part of the Soybean Belt with a very dry August so far. The drought monitor showed an expansion of the soybean crop in drought to 11% which is up for 3% only two weeks ago.
• Analysts are estimating that the USDA soybean crush will come in around 207 million bushels for July. If this number is realized, the crush would be up 5.1% from the 197.1 mb processed in June and up 7.2% from July 2024.
• For the week, November soybeans lost 4 cents while March lost 3-1/4 cents to $10.87. October soybean meal lost $4.90 this week, and October soybean oil lost 3.24 cents. Over the past five trading days, funds are estimated to have sold over 24,000 contracts of soybeans.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes, supported by end-of-month positioning, first notice day for September contracts, and spillover strength from corn. September Chicago rose 7-3/4 cents to 518, Kansas City gained 6 cents to 492-3/4, and MIAX added 4 cents to 559-1/4. Short covering and technical buying ahead of the long weekend also played a role ahead of the three-day weekend. Wheat also was likely a follower of today’s sharply higher corn market.
• Russia has increased their wheat export tax to 134.4 Rubles per mt through September 9. This is up sharply from the previous tax of 32.1 Rubles per mt.
• According to the Benos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop is off to a good start. Reportedly, 85% of the wheat crop’s soil moisture conditions are adequate to optimal.
• The European Commission updated its 25/26 grain forecast to 276.9 MMT (down from July’s 278.4 MMT), though soft wheat production was revised higher to 128.1 MMT from 127.3 MMT.
• Yesterday’s updated USDA drought monitor indicated that as of August 26, winter wheat areas experiencing drought were unchanged from the previous week at 31%. Meanwhile, spring wheat acres in drought declined 1% from last week to 13%.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures were slightly higher to end the week. October and November contracts improved 3 cents each to close at $18.11 and $17.84, respectively.
• Spot cheese was unchanged at $1.7750/lb on the day while whey prices were 1.50 cents higher to $0.57/lb.
• Class IV futures were weaker on pressure from a poor spot trade for butter. October, November, and December contracts were down more than 20 cents.
• Spot butter erased yesterday’s gains, losing 4 cents to close at $2.0450/lb. Powder was unchanged from the day prior at $1.26/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty