CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Selling pressure weighed on the corn market as the influence of first notice day for September futures and technical weakness saw liquidation. September corn posted a new low for the moves, and December futures lost 6 cents on the session.
• September futures are at “First Notice Day” tomorrow, and long positions need to be liquidated or risk the chance of delivery against the futures. This typically can bring additional volatility into the market. Expectations are for deliveries against September futures to be limited.
• Brazilian export shipments for the marketing year are running ahead of pace, keeping pressure on US corn prices. The target for corn exports in Brazil is 50mmt this marketing year, but that total may need to be adjusted higher if the export pace remains strong.
• The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for corn are –150,000 mt – 150,000 mt for old crop and 400,000 – 1.1 mmt for new crop sales. The old crop marketing year ends on Thursday, August 31.
• As harvest moves closer, basis levels could be under pressure as end users become more comfortable with front-end supplies, as well as receiving freshly harvested corn. The National Average Corn basis has trended lower in recent weeks. The possibly softer cash market tone will likely weigh on futures prices.
• SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower despite a higher open. Soybean meal and oil both closed lower as well despite hot and dry forecasts and another good-sized export sale this morning. November soybeans are technically overbought and may need fresh bullish news to keep momentum moving higher.
• This morning, the USDA reported a sale of 10.0 mb of new crop soybeans to unknown destinations which comes after a string of recent export sales. The US has become more competitive with Brazilian soybean offers for new crop which has resulted in improved sales.
• Soybean crush demand has been firm as crush margins improve significantly. Based on October futures, one bushel of 14-dollar soybeans can be crushed into $17.35 worth of soybean meal and oil.
• A Farm Futures magazine survey of US planting intentions for 2024 found that growers expect to reduce plantings of corn in the coming year while increasing soybean acres. Soybean plantings were seen at 85.402 billion acres which is up from 2.3% from the USDA’s 2023 estimate.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS

• StatsCan released its estimate for Canada’s 2023 wheat production, and it came in at 29.5 mmt, 0.8 mmt lower than the 30.3 mmt expected by analysts. This year’s production is 14.2% lower than last year.
• There are also reports that the US State Department is still working with Romania and Ukraine to increase ag exports via the Danube River.
• Russian officials have stated without details, that Putin plans on meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. Russia has already offered to supply the country with 1 mmt of grain to be distributed to needy countries as an alternative to the Black Sea grain deal.
• Fighting between Russia and Ukraine continues to escalate with reports of several Ukrainian drone attacks deep into Russian territory that damaged 4 large transport planes.
• While US wheat is expecting its second lowest ending stocks-to-use ratio in 10 years, the lack of export demand continues to weigh on prices.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Nearby Class IV futures were down double digits on Wednesday, as the recent weakness in the butter trade looks to be pressuring futures lower. 
• The Q4 average Class IV milk price finished at $18.32 today, it’s lowest close since July 19th.
• Spot powder was down another penny on Wednesday and remains near multi-year lows. Demand has been lacking for months.
• Over in Class III, the market took a pause today. Spot cheese and whey were both steady.
• The USDA announced the August Class III official settlement at $17.19 per cwt, while August Class IV settled at $18.91 per cwt.

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Author

Amanda Brill