CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strength in the soybean market and outside markets help support the corn market to start the week. Prices were looking for direction after last Friday’s difficult close but found price consolidation.
• The USDA released weekly export inspections during the session on Monday. Last week, US exporters shipped 32.9 mb (836,000 mt) of corn on the export market. This was down from last week’s totals. Even though we are only 2 weeks into the marketing year, export inspections for 24/25 are running 24% behind the start of last year.
• Brazil is starting planting of the 24/25 first crop of corn. Estimates are that 15% of the crop is planted, but concerns regarding dry weather may limit that number going forward.
• The USDA will release crop ratings this afternoon. For corn, weather is not a major concern of the market with harvest around the corner, but the market will be watching maturity ratings. Harvest is expected to be 4% complete, as early harvest in southern states is picking up.
• The market may stay choppy this week looking towards Thursday’s USDA Crop Production report. The report will provide the market with its next snapshot of USDA projections for crop size and representative demand targets.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher taking back a good chunk of Friday’s losses. Dry weather in the US has been supportive along with concerns over a dry Brazilian forecast that could delay planting. A flash sale was reported this morning and export sales have strengthened recently which could account for the 63-cent rally off the lows in the November contract.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 24/25 marketing year. This follows multiple sales reported last week to China and confirmed some rumors floating around that China was looking to make large purchases of US soybeans.
• Although it’s early to focus on Brazilian weather, the country has experienced very dry conditions, preventing many areas from starting early planting. With soil moisture already low, seeds planted in extremely dry conditions without rain in the forecast face significant risk. If the dry weather continues and planting is delayed further, a larger rally in soybean prices could follow.
• Today’s export inspections report saw soybean inspections total 13 mb, which was on the lower end of trade estimates and put total inspections down 30% from the previous year for 23/24. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 1.850 bb for 24/25, which would be up 9% from the previous year.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Chicago wheat futures overcame early weakness to close with small gains. However, Kansas City and Minneapolis futures were unable to follow suit, with both posting losses. Matif wheat futures also closed slightly lower, adding additional pressure. Minneapolis futures, in particular, reacted negatively to Stats Canada’s all-wheat ending stocks report, which came in at 4.6 mmt for 23/24, well above last month’s USDA estimate of only 1.8 mmt.
• A general lack of fresh news has not provided much excitement in the marketplace for wheat. However, it is likely that the Federal Reserve will issue a rate cut next week that would pressure the US Dollar and be supportive to wheat.
• Weekly wheat inspections at 21.6 mb bring the 24/25 total inspections to 233 mb, which is up 34% from a year ago and inspections are running above the USDA’s estimated pace. Additionally, 24/25 exports are estimated at 825 mb, 17% above the previous year.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat prices declined $1 from last week to $215 per mt. There is some conflicting information, however, as SovEcon reports increases to between $218 and $221 per mt. Either way, this remains cheap to global importers and continues to limit upside potential for wheat prices.
• According to StoneX, Brazil’s 24/25 wheat crop is estimated at 8.09 mmt, which is a 4% decline from their previous estimate. However, they also raised their Brazil wheat export forecast from 1.76 to 2.15 mmt.
• Egypt’s supply minister has reportedly said that their tender for 3.8 mmt of wheat is still valid and they plan to import that amount. Previously they purchased around 300,000 mt of wheat, so they are still looking for 3.5 mmt to fulfill the remainder.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III and IV milk futures continue to push up to the $23.00/cwt level, with another strong day of bidding in the milk market on Monday.
• October Class III added 70c to $23.54, hitting new contract highs. October Class IV gained 14c to $22.94.
• Each spot product was bid higher, with cheese up 0.50c, butter up 1.50c, powder up 1.50c, and whey up 0.25c.
• Several powder futures contracts hit new highs of the year on Monday.
• Both Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 Class III milk futures averages closed into new highs.

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Author

John Heinberg