CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures eased slightly on a quiet news day as the market positioned ahead of Friday’s USDA WASDE. December fell 2 cents to 419 ¾, while March slipped 2 cents to 437 ¾.
• Demand remains supportive but may be slowing, with higher prices limiting export business. USDA hasn’t reported a flash export sale since August 22.
• Grain markets may be looking to add some weather premium. Long-range forecasts point to above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the Corn Belt into mid-September. The ongoing dry conditions could limit final yield totals this fall.
• Harvest pressure is beginning to surface as U.S. corn harvest reached 4% complete. A record crop outlook and fresh supplies could weigh on prices.
• USDA will release the September WASDE on Friday, February 12. Expectations are for corn yield to be reduced to 186.0 bu/a according to analyst survey. The 2025-26 corn ending stocks should also be reduced slightly with demand adjustments to near 2.000 bb.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower in quiet trade ahead of Friday’s WASDE report and a lack of fresh news. November soybeans lost 2-1/2 cents to $10.31-1/4 while March soybeans lost 2 cents to $10.66. October soybean meal gained $5.80 to $287.70 and October soybean oil lost 1.05 cents to 49.93 cents.
• Crop ratings edged lower, with soybeans at 64% good-to-excellent, down 1 point from last week but 1 point above expectations. Pod-setting is 97% complete and 21% of the crop is dropping leaves, both in line with average pace.
• StoneX has revised their estimates for the 25/26 soybean yield lower to 53.2 bpa. This would be slightly below the USDA’s estimate but is on par with Allendale’s last guess of 53.28 bpa. Production is estimated at 4,257 mb, and the USDA will update its estimates this Friday.
• Estimates for the WASDE report see 25/26 ending stocks slightly lower to unchanged at 287 mb while 24/25 ending stocks are expected to be unchanged. Yield is projected 0.4 bpa lower at 53.2 bpa. There is a possibility that the USDA lowers export demand to account for the lack of Chinese purchases.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes, pressured by weakness in corn and soybeans, softer Paris milling wheat, and firmer U.S. Dollar Index. Russian export values fell another $2–$4, adding to U.S. market pressure. December KC led losses, down 7 cents to 510 ¼, while Chicago fell 3 ½ to 520 ¼ and MIAX lost 2 ¾ to 574.
• According to the USDA’s crop progress report, spring wheat harvest is 85% complete as of September 7. This is up 2% from last year’s pace, and 1% from the five-year average. Additionally, the winter wheat crop is now 5% planted, in line with last year and 1% below the five-year average.
• Data from Statistics Canada showed their all-wheat stocks at 4.112 mmt. This fell under expectations for 4.4 mmt and compares with last year’s 4.6 mmt figure. The wheat market seemed to largely ignore this, however, as is evident by the lower trade.
• The economy ministry of Ukraine has stated that their nation intends to up the winter grain planted area for 2026 to 5.43 million hectares. This compares with 5.24 million in 2025. Winter wheat sowing on its own may rise from 4.5 to 4.78 million hectares.
• Russia’s harvest continues to advance, with 105 mmt of grain collected. SovEcon raised its wheat production outlook to 86.1 mmt from 85.4, citing better yields in the Volga Valley.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• A whey buyer took two loads off the spot trade today, bidding the spot price up 3c to $0.60/lb. This kept support in nearby Class III Tuesday.
• The rest of the spot trade saw steady selling. Powder and butter each fell 2c while cheese was down 2.50c.
• Nearby Class III finished green for the second day in a row, the first time the market has been able to do that since August 25 and 26.
• Class IV milk futures were down double digits, as contracts made new lows. October 2025 lost 17 to $16.75.
• Second month butter futures hit its lowest level since 2021.

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Author

Brandon Doherty