CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures extended their losing streak Wednesday, pressured by concerns over a larger projected yield and position squaring ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. December corn closed at its lowest level in 10 days and fell for a fifth consecutive session, losing 5 3/5 cents to 527 ¾, while March futures lost 5 ¾ cents to 543 ¼.
• The USDA will release the next crop production report on Friday, September 12. Expectations for corn yield to be lowered to 178.2 bu/acre, down from 180.7 in the August report. After the yield, the next focus will be acres.
• Corn market is looking at the possibility of extra acres as the September FSA data will be released on Friday. An increase in corn acres could absorb any yield reduction, leaving carry out still comfortable.
• USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Wednesday morning. Mexico purchased 182,880 MT (7.2 mb) of corn for the 2026-27 marketing year. This was the first published sale of corn since August 21.
• Despite today’s announced flash sale, new crop corn exports are running 32% behind last year, and export estimates for 2026-27 could see some early reductions, especially if corn production is lowered on the WASDE report on Friday.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower as funds likely partook in profit taking ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Early expectations are for USDA to hold yield near its August estimate while making a modest increase to acreage. Flash sales to China and sharply higher crude oil following renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran provided support but were largely disregarded by the market.
• November soybeans lost 6-3/4 cents to $13.09-1/2 and have been rangebound for a week while March lost 6-3/4 cents to $13.31-3/4. October soybean meal gained $1.80 to $345.10 and October soybean oil lost 0.14 cents to 70.08 cents. October crude oil is up $3.26 a barrel to $96.29.
• Private exporters reported sales of 340,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year and 100,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year.
• Yesterday afternoon the USDA released its Crop Progress report which saw soybean ratings unchanged at 58% good to excellent which compared to 64% at this time last year and the 5-year average of 59%. 26% of the crop is dropping leaved which is ahead of the averages.
• StoneX revised its estimates for the size of the 2026 soybean crop increasing it to 4.547 billion bushels from their previous estimate of 4.470 bb. They expect yields to remain at 53.0 bpa.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower across the board. Higher StoneX estimates for corn and soybeans led to a weaker trade that was of no help to wheat. Additionally, bearish data from Stats Canada indicated that their all wheat stocks as of July 31 came in at 6.6 mmt; this is up 56.8% from the 4.2 mmt figure last year. In the December contract, Chicago lost 18-1/4 cents to 728-3/4, Kansas City fell 12-3/4 cents to 806-1/4, and MIAX dropped 6 cents to 748.
• According to yesterday afternoon’s USDA crop progress report, the spring wheat harvest is 86% complete as of September 6. This is slightly above last year and the five-year average, which both sit at 83%. Meanwhile, winter wheat planting is just getting started at 2% complete. This falls below last year’s 4% pace, and the five-year average of 5%.
• News outlets are reporting that Latvia is considering implementing at 300% tariff on shipments of grain from Russia and Belarus, if that grain moves through Baltic countries.
• Pakistan is reported to have issued a tender to purchase 750,000 mt of wheat. The deadline for offers is said to be September 16. Pakistan may need to import a significant amount of wheat due to a substandard domestic harvest. This comes just after Saudi Arabia cancelled their 535,000 mt tender.
• According to a Reuters poll, US 26/27 wheat ending stocks are projected at 718 mb on average. This would be up 1 mb from last month, if realized. However, the range of guesses spans between 686 mb and 742 mb. As for the global carryout figure, the average guess comes in at 273.0 mmt, down 0.3 mmt from last month. Estimates range from 271.0 mmt to 275.0 mmt.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III futures ended mixed, with strength in the nearby contracts. October was up 15 cents at $16.34.
• Spot cheese gained slightly, closing up 0.3750 cents at $1.50125/lb. Spot whey gained 0.50 cents to close at $0.7575/lb.
• Class IV futures ended the session with gains, with October up 27 cents to close at $19.61.
• Spot butter fell 2.25 cents, closing lower at $1.380/lb. Spot powder gained 2.25 cents to close at $1.9150/lb.

 Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of the National Futures Association. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. TFM Market Updates is a service of Stewart-Peterson Inc. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

Author

John Heinberg