CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• After holding support for the second consecutive day and for the third time in the past five sessions, strength in soybeans and the wheat market helped corn futures move higher today. Strength in the soybean and wheat markets provided additional support ahead of tomorrow’s September WASDE report. December corn futures gained 6 cents to 533 ¾, while March corn futures added 6 cents to 549.
• December corn has held support at 526 ¾ cents three of the past five sessions before finding some buying support and finishing 7 cents off the session low. This price point will be a key watching area with the USDA report on Friday.
• Market analysts are expecting corn yield to drop to 178.1 bu/a in the September WASDE report on Friday. If realized, total production estimates would drop approximately 230 mb from August totals, which should lower corn carryout the 2026-27 marketing year.
• Corn market is looking for the possibility of extra acres as the September FSA data will be released on Friday. Current corn acre expectations are at 88.6 million harvested acres. An increase in corn acres could absorb any yield reduction, leaving carry out still comfortable.
• Weekly ethanol production fell slightly last week to 323 million gallons. This was down 3 million gallons from last week and down less than 1% below last year. A total of 108 mb of corn was used in ethanol production last week. Traders are expecting a small reduction in corn used for ethanol in the WASDE report on Friday.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, posting new contract highs as a nearly $6 jump in crude oil and a large purchase of U.S. soybeans by China provided support. Higher crude oil prices also supported soybean oil as escalating attacks between the U.S. and Iran continue to fuel uncertainty and dash hopes for a near-term resolution to the conflict.
• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher, making new contract highs as a result of a near 6 dollar jump in crude oil and a large purchase of soybeans by China. Crude oil moved higher supporting soybean oil as attacks between the US and Iran escalate and dash hopes for a nearby resolution to the conflict.
• November soybeans gained 22-3/4 cents to $13.32-1/4 while March gained 21 cents to $13.52-3/4 with both scoring new highs. October soybean meal gained $5.50 to $350.60 and October soybean oil gained 1.33 cents to 71.41 cents. October crude oil is up $6.00 to $102.06 a barrel, breaking the $100 mark for the first time in the contract’s history.
• Private exporters reported sales of 272,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year and 206,500 metric tons of soybeans received in the reporting period for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year. China has reportedly purchased around 13 mmt of U.S. soybeans which is over 50% of their commitment to buy 25 mmt.
• Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report at 11am central see soybean ending stocks for 26/27 falling to 291 mb from 320 mb last month with 25/26 ending stocks unchanged. Harvested acreage is expected to be unchanged while yield estimates are lower at 52.4 bpa from 52.7 bpa a month ago. World ending stocks are expected to fall by 1.0 mmt.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat rebounded today, closing with double-digit gains across all three classes. Continued volatility and uncertainty in the Black Sea region are expected to influence price direction. Spillover strength from higher row crop futures, along with rallying energy prices, also provided support to the wheat complex today. In the December contract, Chicago gained 12-1/2 cents to 741-1/4, Kansas City rallied 12-1/2 cents to 818-3/4, and MIAX was up 14-1/2 cents at 762-1/2.
• The average WASDE pre-report estimate of US 26/27 wheat carryout is 720 mb. This would be up 3 mb from last month, if realized. Globally, 2025/26 wheat ending stocks are expected to remain steady at 280.2 mmt, but for 2026/27 traders anticipate a decline of 0.1 mmt to 273.2 mmt.
• SovEcon has again reduced their estimate of Russian wheat exports, this time by 3.2 mmt to 41.4 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using a figure of 46.0 mmt. SovEcon’s total grain export estimate was also reduced by 8.2% to 49.4 mmt.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange has increased their forecast of Argentina’s wheat production by 0.5 mmt to 21 mmt. This is now in line with the USDA estimate. According to the exchange, over 90% of the Argentine wheat crop was rated good to very good. However, a recent rust outbreak in northern areas could reduce quality and yields.
• Bangladeshi wheat imports, per the USDA, may drop by over 10% this marketing year due to high global prices. Expectations are for imports to fall to 6.6 mmt in 26/27, versus 7.4 mmt over the past 12 months. Wheat is an important staple in Bangladesh, and their domestic production only covers about 10% of demand. Nevertheless, Black Sea disruptions and high prices may curb their import demand.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot cheese fell 4 cents today to $1.46125/lb on the heels of a penny drop in blocks and a 7-cent break in barrels. Whey was up to $0.76/lb.
• The Q4 Class III contracts were down between 19 and 23 cents today with mostly small losses out into next year.
• The Class IV contracts were mixed with not a lot of movement. October was unchanged on the day.
• Spot butter was down a penny to make 7 cents of losses on the week so far, while powder is up 6 cents on the week after closing 2.50 cents higher.

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Author

Amanda Brill