CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures started the week with slight selling pressure as harvest begins to ramp up and strong selling in the wheat market limited gains.
• The USDA will release the latest crop progress report on Monday afternoon. Last week 5% of the corn crop was harvested, and that number is expected to grow as warm and drier weather will likely push the corn crop to the finish line this fall. The increased supplies in the pipeline will likely limit the near-term upside in the corn market.
• Corn inspected for export last week came in at 20.5 mb (555,000 mt) in today’s weekly export inspections report. Though it is early in the marketing year, export inspections are nearly 40 mb or 24% behind last year’s. Typically, corn inspections soften during this window as the exporters rotate to shipping soybeans. The lower inspections number may also be reflecting the low water conditions on the Mississippi River and restrictive grain flows from upstream.
• Managed Funds continue to reduce their once record large short positions in the corn market. In last week’s Commitment of Traders report managed funds were still net short 132,000 corn contracts, but over the past 3 weeks have exited 125,000 short corn futures.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly lower as pressure was found throughout the grain complex from sharply lower wheat futures. A flash sale reported this morning lent support earlier in the day, but soybeans were unable to hold that momentum. NOPA crush numbers were disappointing today as well. Both soybean meal and oil were higher to end the day despite losses in soybeans.
• This morning, the USDA reported private export sales totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 24/25 marketing year. This sale had previously been reported to China but was changed. Regardless, China has been a consistent buyer of new crop US soybeans which has contributed to demand.
• The NOPA crush report that was released today showed August crush totals falling to nearly a 3-year low of 158.008 million bushels, while soybean oil stocks fell to a 10-month low of 1.138 billion pounds. Both soybean crush and stocks were well below the average trade estimates.
• Today’s soybean export inspections totaled 14.7 million bushels for the week ending Thursday, September 12. This was above last week’s 13.4 mb and was towards the lower range of trade estimates. Inspections for 23/24 are now down 16% from the previous year.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a portion of their short position. They covered 23,495 contracts, which left them net short 130,601 contracts as of September 10.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat suffered double-digit losses across all three futures classes. A combination of profit-taking and stop orders being triggered after hitting key resistance was likely the culprit. Additionally, concerns may have eased somewhat regarding tensions between Ukraine and Russia, which might have put pressure on Paris milling wheat futures. These futures closed lower across the board, offering no support to the US market.
• Weekly wheat export inspections of 20.5 mb bring total 24/25 inspections to 255 mb, up 34% from last year. Inspections are also running ahead of the USDA’s estimated pace. Their export estimate remained unchanged in last week’s WASDE report at 825 mb, which is still up 17% from the previous year.
• According to Friday’s CFTC data, funds bought back 13,000 contracts of Chicago wheat. Their net short position across all three classes now totals 70,000 contracts, marking their smallest net short position in three months.
• Russia shipped 990,000 mt of grain last week, according to SovEcon, down from the previous week. Wheat accounted for 980,000 mt of that total. Additionally, IKAR reported that Russian wheat export values closed at $216 per mt, which is $1 higher than the previous week.
• Argentina remains too dry, causing its wheat crop to struggle. Dry conditions over the weekend also continued to delay corn planting. A storm system is expected to move through later this week, but most of the rainfall is forecast for eastern areas, where soil moisture is already in better shape than in the west.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures were weaker to start the week with sellers hitting the market. Q4 contracts closed 36-40 cents lower on the day.
• Spot cheese improved 1.50 cents to $2.3950/lb which is another new high for 2024. Whey closed 1.50 cents lower, dropping below the $0.60/lb level.
• Class IV futures finished lower on the day due to a poor spot trade for products. October and November futures contracts lost 5 and 9 cents respectively.
• Spot butter continues to weaken losing 4.50 cents last week and another 6 cents on Monday. Spot butter now sits at $3.07/lb. Powder remains strong at $1.39/lb after losing just 0.25 cents today.

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Author

Brandon Doherty