CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures gave back a portion of Monday’s gains as continued weakness in crude oil prices and limited harvest delays weighed on the market. December corn was 6 ¼ cents lower to 536 ¾, while March corn lost 5 ¾ cents to 551.
• Improved movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, the opening of a Saudi Arabia pipeline, and improved tone of a diplomatic solution in the Middle East has weighed on Crude oil price, which is trading lower for the sixth straight session.
• The USDA released the weekly crop progress report on Monday afternoon. Despite moderate to heavy rainfall across areas of the corn belt, corn harvest progress advanced to 13% complete. This is 2% above the 5-year average, and 3% above last year.
• The corn market is watching headlines going into the meeting between President Trump and President Xi of China on Thursday. The corn market is looking for some confirmation on possible corn purchases and/or elimination of current tariffs on US grains going into China.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised their forecast for Argentina’s 2026-27 corn crop to 66 MMT, up 3.2% over this year’s record crop as favorable price will likely increase planted area.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day lower in relatively quiet trade. Prices did shift slightly off overnight lows, but traders appear to be holding their breath ahead of the meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi on Thursday. There are unlikely to be major surprises at this meeting but rather a show of good faith. Soybeans were also likely pressured by lower crude oil which has now fallen 10 dollars a barrel from its recent highs.
• November soybeans ended the day down 2-1/2 cents to $13.25-1/2 with $12.35 seemingly chart resistance. March soybeans lost 3 cents to $13.48-3/4 while October soybean meal gained $2.30 to $368.90 and October soybean oil lost 0.95 cents to 67.37 cents. November crude oil lost $1.78 to $90.63 a barrel.
• Yesterday afternoon the USDA released its Crop Progress report which saw soybean ratings unchanged from last week at 58% good to excellent comparing with the 5-year average of 58%. The crop is now 12% harvested which is ahead of the 5-year average pace of 8% at this time. 62% of the crop is dropping leaves which is also ahead of the average pace of 58%.
• This morning it was reported that Iran informed the Trump Administration that it will open the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days if the US accepts certain demands such as lifting the US military blockade of Iranian exports which include crude oil. The White House has not commented on this yet.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat closed lower alongside corn and soybeans. Weakness in the grain complex today may have stemmed from lower crude oil prices – this itself appears to be tied to rumors that Iran stated they will re-open the Strait of Hormuz if the US begins military de-escalation in the region. In the December contract, Chicago lost 9-1/2 cents to 717-1/4, Kansas City fell 13-1/4 cents to 781-1/4, and MIAX dropped 10 cents to 736-1/4.
• Yesterday afternoon’s USDA crop progress report indicated that the US spring wheat harvest is 96% complete – this is in line with both last year’s pace and the five-year average. Winter wheat plantings advanced 9% on the week to 17%. This falls below last year’s 19% pace and the average of 21%. Additionally, 2% of the winter wheat crop has emerged, which is 2% behind both last year and the average.
• Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan are said to have had a recent discussion on Russia halting attacks, to allow safe travel of vessels through the Black Sea. This would be bearish for the wheat market if it does occur. But in the meantime, both Russia and Ukraine continue strike each other’s ports and vessels.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is estimating Argentina’s 26/27 wheat production at 23.4 mmt, representing a decline of 4.4 mmt from last year. However, this is still higher than the USDA’s forecast of 21.5 mmt.
• According the EU’s Monitoring Agriculture Resources unit, Ukrainian wheat yields are estimated to be 9% above the five-year average. Additionally, their wheat production is expected to rise by 12% year over year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Powder jumped 3.25 cents higher on the day to get back above the $2.12/lb level for the second time this year. Butter fell 2 pennies to $1.34/lb.
• Class IV continues to see upside movement as the powder market keeps climbing. October futures gained 21 cents to close at $19.97.
• Class III futures were mixed among remaining 2026 contracts as the cheese market has been quiet. October futures fell 5 cents to $15.65.
• Spot cheese was unchanged from yesterday at $1.40875/lb while whey continues to rise, improving 0.75 cents to $0.7875/lb.
• August Milk production was up 1.7% year-over-year while cow numbers increased 167,000 head from last year to 9.710 million head.

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Author

John Heinberg