CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw a two-sided trade before settling lower. Dec corn lost 1 ½ cents on the session as the market maintains its sideways to slightly higher trade going into Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report.
• Corn harvest continues to ramp up with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Corn harvest was 15% complete last week as reported on the weekly Crop Progress report. This total is 2% above the 5-year average but was just slightly below analysts’ expectations.
• Corn maturity stays well ahead of pace as 70% of the crop was rated to mature last week, 10% higher than the 5-year average of 60%. The high level of maturity should keep crop harvest available to producers.
• USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday. While there is variability in corn usage for this report, expectations are for overall grain stocks to be slightly higher than last year’s totals for this report.
• With strong ethanol margins, and some signs of improved export demand, the market is building some optimism that demand could improve going into the harvest window.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day higher after trading mostly lower for much of the day, with both soybean meal and soybean oil ending higher as well. While the November contract reached the 100-day moving average, it was unable to close above it.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed a decline in good to excellent ratings by 2 points to 50%, and 12% of the crop was reportedly harvested compared to 5% a week ago and the trade estimate of 14%. Southern states are harvesting more rapidly with Louisiana 79% complete, and Mississippi 61% done. Some analysts are expecting yields to come in below USDA expectations and closer to 49 bpa.
• Brazilian soybean planting is 1.9% complete as of September 21, but weather conditions have been very hot and dry in the central and northern regions. That weather pattern is expected to change by the end of this week to offer more rain.
• Outside markets are mixed with stocks lower and energies higher, as another government shutdown looms, though the Senate is working on a short-term funding bill that would keep a shutdown from occurring for another 4-6 weeks.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• According to the USDA, spring wheat harvest is 96% complete as of Sunday September 24. Additionally, winter wheat plantings are said to be 26% complete, just below the 29% average.
• A third ship is said to have left the Chornomorsk port in Ukraine, traveling via their own “humanitarian corridor.” These vessels are taking on the risk of Russian attacks, with new reports of a strike against grain facilities in Ismail, an export area along the Danube River.
• Canadian 23/24 wheat production is estimated to fall 13% to 29.8 mmt, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. That represents a 3.4 mmt decline from the August report.
• According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has planted a total of 2.2 million hectares of winter crops, with 1.02 million of that being wheat. For wheat that represents a 64% increase year on year. However, there is some concern about drought affecting their winter crops, with little to no rain in the region for the past 30-40 days.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Spot butter jumped a massive 14 cents today on one load traded to close at $3.18/lb, its highest close since October 14, 2022.
• Spot cheese, however, fell 3.25 cents on a 4.25 cent barrel and 2.25 cent block drop, its seventh lower close in eight trading days.
• Cheddar barrels are down 32 cents on the month so far, while blocks have given up 23.50 cents.
• Nearby Class IV futures were lifted by the strong butter trade with the October and November near $20.50 now.
• Conversely, Class III futures saw the second month October break 31 cents to close back under the $17.00 mark.

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Author

Brandon Doherty