TFM Daily Market Summary 1-24-2025

CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • The corn market traded lower to end the week despite another strong week of export sales. End of week profit taking and a cut of export taxes in Argentina weighed on the market.
  • The Argentina government announced an export tax cut on agriculture commodities to help support producers in the South American country. Corn export taxes will be reduced from 12% to 9.5% until the end of June. This cut lowers export prices, and stimulates additional producer selling of grains, providing competition for U.S. export business.
  • For the week ending January 16, corn export sales reached 1.661 MMT (65.4 mb), coming in at the high end of expectations with South Korea as the primary buyer. Total sales are 29% above last year and running ahead of the pace needed to meet the current USDA target.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its corn crop projection for this year by 1 MMT this week, citing impacts from hot and dry weather which are limiting crop potential.
  • South American weather will stay a driver in the grain markets going into next week’s trade. Forecasts still look improved for Argentina and Southern Brazil, but recent weather has still been less than ideal. Sunday night trade will likely be influenced by the weekend weather.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower giving back all of yesterday’s gains in the March contract. Yesterday, prices failed at resistance at the 200-day moving average near $10.75. Soybean meal led the way lower as Argentine exports are expected to increase, while soybean oil was slightly higher.
  • Yesterday evening, the Argentine government announced that it would cut export taxes on all grains in order to bolster the domestic farming economy. Traders likely see Argentina exports increasing due to this, but weather has improved in the country as well.
  • Today’s export sales report was within trade expectations at 54.8 million bushels for 24/25 and 33.1 tb for 25/26. This was up noticeably from the previous week and the 4-week average. Primary destinations were to China, Japan, and Mexico. Last week’s export shipments of 38.0 mb were above the 20.5 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates.
  • For the week, March soybeans gained 21-3/4 cents while November gained 21 cents. March soybean meal gained $7.70 while March soybean oil lost 47 cents.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Despite a drop in the U.S. Dollar Index, wheat prices fell due to weak corn and soybean markets, poor export sales, and a decline in Paris milling wheat futures.
  • Overnight Argentina cut wheat export tax to 9.5% from 12% for the next five months. It was also reported late this week that Russia reduced its wheat tax to 4,430 Rubles/mt, down 5.7%. Historically, reduced export taxes boost farmer selling.
  • The USDA reported an increase of only 6.1 mb of wheat exports sales for 24/25, and an increase of 1.9 mb for 25/26. Shipments last week at 7.4 mb also fell below the 18.9 mb pace needed per week to reach the USDA’s export goal of 850 mb. Wheat sales commitments stand at 650 mb, up 7% from last year.
  • According to their agriculture ministry, since the season began on July 1 Ukraine’s total grain exports have reached 24.7 mmt, which is up 11% year over year. Wheat shipments specifically have hit 10.6 mmt, which is up 21% year over year.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Class III milk futures finished the day mostly higher led by the February contract which gained 15 cents to $19.30.
  • Spot cheese improved again by 0.625 cents to close at $1.82625/lb. Whey fell 0.25 cents to $0.6975/lb for a total loss of 4 cents on the week.
  • Class IV milk futures were quiet on Friday with just a handful of contracts seeing small losses. The February contract saw the biggest loss at just 5 cents to close at $20.60.
  • Spot butter gained 1.75 cents to close out the week at $2.53/lb. Powder lost half a cent to go home at $1.3475/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty

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