CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures fell Tuesday amid choppy trade ahead of Friday’s USDA report, pressured by weaker wheat, potential Argentine weather improvement, and a strong U.S. dollar.
• Afternoon weather models are forecasting improved rainfall chances for Argentina by mid-January which should bring relief to the center of the farming region in the country that has been under stress from recent hot, dry weather. The recent weather pattern has had an impact, but that could be minimized by this potential rainfall.
• Weekly ethanol production dipped to 324 million gallons/day last week, using 111 mb of corn—still ahead of the pace needed to meet USDA marketing year targets.
• The January WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports on January 10 will be pivotal for stockpile and demand insights, with choppy trading expected ahead of the release. Expectations are for corn production to be limited, reducing the possible carry out total to 1.680 billion bushels.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans traded on either side of unchanged throughout the day but ultimately closed lower ahead of Friday’s WASDE report with an improved Argentinian weather forecast pressuring both soybeans and soybean meal while soybean oil ended the day higher.
• Pre-report estimates for soybeans in Friday’s WASDE see ending stocks falling by 12 mb to 458 mb. Yield is expected to be reduced by 0.1 bpa to 51.6 bpa, but the bearish surprise in Friday’s report could come from changes made to Brazilian production. Many analysts are expecting soybean production to be above 175 mmt, but the USDA’s last estimate in December was 169 mmt
• Hedge funds reduced net short positions to 42,447 contracts as of December 31, cutting 25,436 contracts amid Argentine and Brazilian weather concerns.
• This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year. While encouraging, these flash sales have slowed down in recent weeks.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• All wheat classes posted modest losses, pressured by weaker corn and soybeans, a stronger U.S. dollar, and mixed Paris milling wheat futures.
• Friday’s report includes the first look at 2025 U.S. winter wheat acreage, estimated at 33.5 million acres, slightly above 2024.
• Pre-report estimates for December 1 wheat stocks average 1.578 bb (down from September’s 1.986 bb but above last year’s 1.421 bb). U.S. wheat ending stocks are forecast at 807 mb, with global carryout expected to rise slightly to 258.2 mmt.
• According to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, hard red spring wheat stocks stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin are down 24% year over year at 12.73 mb, for the week ending January 5. However, stocks were up 406,000 bu when compared with the week prior.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III milk futures end the day mostly down. The January contract lost 9 cents to close at $20.38.
• Spot cheese pushed higher today gaining 0.3750 cents to close at $1.89250/lb. While whey remained unchanged at $0.74/lb.
• Class IV futures ended the day mixed, February gained 4 cents to close at $21.10 while March lost 4 cents to close at $20.90.
• Spot butter grained 2 cents to close at $2.60/lb, while butter also saw gains, up 0.50 cents to close at $1.3700/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty