CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Corn futures saw another quiet, choppy session as the market marked time ahead of Monday’s USDA WASDE and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. March corn traded in a narrow 3¾-cent range and finished marginally lower, down ¼ cent to 445¾. May futures also slipped ¼ cent to 453¾. Despite the subdued close, March corn finished the week up 8¼ cents.
• Market expectations for Monday’s WASDE call for a 2.1 bu/acre cut to the U.S. corn yield, bringing it down to 183.9 bu/acre. Even with that reduction, total production would still be estimated at 16.544 billion bushels — nearly 1 billion bushels above the 2023 record crop.
• With lower yields anticipated, the USDA is expected to make offsetting demand adjustments. Most attention is on the feed and residual category, where cuts could reduce ending stocks to around 1.982 billion bushels, down from 2.029 billion in the December balance sheet.
• USDA will also release quarterly grain stocks report on Monday. Expectations for corn stocks as of December 1 to reach 12.962 billion bushels, up nearly 900 mb over last year.
• Weather in Argentina is trending drier, though potential yield impacts have yet to fully develop. Argentina remains the world’s third-largest corn exporter and a key competitor to U.S. corn exports, particularly during the late spring export window.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day slightly higher and gave back some of their gains from earlier in the day. March soybeans have not been able to break above the 200-day moving average. March beans gained 1-1/4 cents to $10.62-1/2 while November lost 1-1/4 cents to $10.71-3/4. March soybean meal gained $0.10 to $303.70 and March soybean oil gained 0.24 cents to 49.69 cents.
• Weekly export sales for the week ending January 1 were respectable, with 32.3 million bushels sold for the 2025/26 marketing year and none reported for 2026/27. China, Egypt, and Indonesia were the primary buyers. Export shipments totaled 40.9 mb, exceeding the roughly 30.4 mb per week needed to meet the USDA’s current export projection.
• Estimates for Monday’s WASDE report see soybean yield called lower by 0.3 bpa to 52.7 bpa. Ending stocks are expected to be unchanged, but Brazilian production is expected to increase. Brazilian production is seen at 176.5 mmt up from 175.0 mmt in December.
• South American weather may provide some support in the near term with Argentina slightly dry which would benefit soybean meal prices. Brazilian weather has been excellent, but forecasts through the end of the month show a drier pattern emerging.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat ended the week mixed to mostly higher in quiet trade as markets positioned ahead of Monday’s USDA reports. Expectations for surprises are limited, with U.S. ending stocks anticipated to edge slightly below 901 mb. March Chicago wheat settled at $5.18, while March Kansas City closed at $5.31½.
• The upcoming supply and demand report is expected to show U.S. ending stocks declining to 896 mb from 901 mb last month, with all winter wheat seeding projected at 32.4 million acres, down from 33.2 million last year.
• Southern Plains rainfall yesterday eased some dry areas, but U.S. drought coverage rose 2% this week to 42%, versus 24% a year ago. Temperatures are expected to stay near seasonal averages for the next week, with no extreme cold expected through the rest of January.
• Forecasts call for cold conditions across Central and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea wheat areas next week, contributing to bullish sentiment in the wheat market due to winterkill concerns.
• Argentina’s harvest is 98.5% complete, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintaining its record production forecast at 27.8 million metric tons, well above the USDA estimate of 24 million metric tons.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• Class III contracts were able to see some positive action today after losses the day prior. The March contract saw the largest gain of 7 cents to close at $15.35.
• Spot cheese fell 0.75 cents heading into the weekend to close at $1.3575/lb. Whey held steady at $0.70/lb.
• Class IV futures were steady to slightly higher going into the weekend. March futures were up 4 cents to $14.60.
• Spot butter was marginally down on the day, losing just 0.25 cents to $1.30/lb. Powder improved nearly two cents to finish out the week at $1.2650/lb.

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Author

Brandon Doherty