CORN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Strong buying strength returned to the corn market as the entire grain complex saw strong money flow on Tuesday. December corn gained 10 ¾ cents to 508, and March added 10 ¾ cents to 522 ¼.
• The USDA crop progress report showed harvest progress nationally moved behind the 5-year average. As of October 4, corn harvest was 23% complete, but below expectation and 4% behind the 5-year average. Iowa is one of the biggest delayed states with only 7% of the crop harvest due to wet conditions. The 5-year average for Iowa is 20%.
• The improved weather forecast for this week should push the corn harvest. The movement of fresh corn supplies into the pipeline will likely limit near-term rallies. A concern with the wet harvest is regarding crop quality as some fields may be susceptible to molding or sprouting ears.
• The USDA will release the October Crop Production report on Friday morning. The market will be looking for a further yield reduction from the September report, but also how the Supply-Demand balance sheet will handle the 170+ mb found on the Grain Stocks report from September 30.
• August exports of corn to Europe reached a 44-year high during the month reaching 1.24 mmt. For the 2025-26 marketing year, total shipments to Europe reached 7.9 MMT, the highest level since 1983-84. The European corn crop was severely limited by hot and drought conditions during the growing season.

SOYBEAN HIGHLIGHTS:

• Soybeans ended the day sharply higher with support primarily from lower crop ratings, a strong move in soybean meal, and a drop in the US dollar that was supportive to all grains today. There have been a total of 4 deliveries against October soybean meal and 135 deliveries against October soybean oil. Wet weather and harvest delays are adding further support.
• November soybeans ended the day up 22-1/4 cents to $13.03 and posted a crossover buy signal on the stochastics, while March was up 20-3/4 cents to $13.28-3/4. December soybean meal gained $7.70 to $354.80 and December soybean oil gained 0.56 cents to 69.91 cents. November crude oil is up 6 cents to $89.49 a barrel and has been trending slowly downward.
• Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings fall by 1 point from last week to 57% good to excellent. This compares to the 5-year average of 58%. 85% of the soybean crop is dropping leaves and 25% of the crop is harvested which is well below the 5-year average pace of 33%. Too much moisture has caused reports of mold and sprouting beans to surface.
• Estimates for Friday’s WASDE report see US soybean ending stocks for the 26/27 crop virtually unchanged at 309 million bushels from 310 million bushels from a month ago. Harvested area is estimated to be unchanged at 85.9 million, while yield is expected to rise by 0.1 bpa to 52.9 bpa, which would slightly increase production.

WHEAT HIGHLIGHTS:

• Wheat posted double-digit gains across the board today, aided by a drop in the US Dollar Index and continued firming of MATIF wheat futures. Support also spilled over from corn and soybeans after their respective crop conditions figures hit season lows, and their harvest progress figures were also well behind average. In the December contract, Chicago gained 12 cents to 704-1/4, Kansas City rallied 14 cents to 756-1/4, and MIAX climbed 11-1/4 cents to 719-3/4.
• According to the USDA’s crop progress report, US winter wheat planting advanced 9% on the week to 36% complete. This is well below the 5-year average pace of 46% at this point in the season. Additionally, just 16% of the crop is reported to have emerged, versus 20% on average.
• According to IKAR, despite the Black Sea export restrictions, Russia was able to ship 2.4 mmt of wheat in the month of September, which was more than originally anticipated. A record 1 mmt of this is said to have gone through Baltic ports. Nevertheless, their total wheat exports so far this season (July-September) have reached only 6.4 mmt, compared with 11.3 mmt last year.
• Data from CONAB indicates that as of September 25, Brazil’s wheat harvest is 28.9% complete. Additionally, that which is still in the field is reported to be 64% in good condition, 29% in average condition, and 7% in poor condition. Furthermore, excess precipitation has increased concerns over quality and disease.
• The Ukrainian farm ministry has said that their nation has sown 1.6 million hectares of winter crops by the end of September. This is roughly 30% of the intended area. Weather conditions for planting in September were said to be favorable, though there are soil moisture deficits in central, western, and southern areas.

DAIRY HIGHLIGHTS:

• November Class III futures traded down 32 cents at the low today, but popped back up to close 6 cents higher at $15.69.
• Spot cheese gained another half cent to close at $1.39375/lb while whey was unchanged at $0.8350/lb.
• Class IV futures closed either unchanged or with small to moderate gains. The November contract jumped 16 cents to move to $21.00.
• Butter fell a half cent to move to $1.31/lb, while powder was 2.75 cents higher to close at $2.2475/lb.
• The Global Dairy Trade Auction saw the index climb, but cheese weakened again. Exports were still in good shape overall, but trending lower for cheese and butter vs. recent months.

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Author

John Heinberg